What are our chances now, They are certainly better than i expected them to be at this stage but do we have what it takes to get over the line, and will we ever again get a full squad to pick from.

Do we try for a win in every game or do we target certain games( very risky ) getting interesting now.

All remaining 5 games are winnable for me but absolutely no chance we will win all 5. With 3 home games, we should be able to get in the 8. I am even fairly hopeful of a top 6 finish now.

Think the only injuries we will have for the Hull KR game are Mamo and Taai.

Looking at who has what left I’d say we need to win three of the last five to stay in the 8. Kr, wakey and probably fc at home are the ones we have more chance of winning. Wigan and Cas away less likely.
Salford play Catalan in the penultimate week which could be very telling.

Got it wrong jools Wigan at home kr away

I said cas away not Wigan. Didn’t specify where Kr and Wigan were played.
Reason being fc away I think we’d lose but chance at home. Cas at home perhaps but not at their place.

always think you need 10 wins to make the top 8

still work to be done by us

2 more wins may be enough with the draw we got but 3 to be sure

Better than even is my calculation. Just.

Bottom three is settled imo. Widnes and Hull KR are done, and Salford aren’t far behind.

So we’re in a battle with Catalans and Leeds to avoid 9th.

Leeds are in shocking form and need to start winning. But, courtesy of the Stone era philosophy of not attempting to score, we have a shocking points difference.

I think it will be very tight. It’s in our hands though - keep winning and we’ll be fine.


When I say, by my calculation, what I mean is that I’ve built a Monte Carlo simulation of the end of the season (with 10,000 runs) and it puts us in the top eight 54% of the time.

Interestingly, it never puts Widnes in the 8 so even though they are 9 points behind and have 12 to play for, I suspect some combination of other results means they are already mathematically outside the 8.

catalans really are on the up, see them in the top 8 now, drinkwater changed them and firing

big match at hull kr next friday, but they all are now in the search for top 8

3 wins i think we need still... hull kr, hull fc, wigan, castleford, wakefield... surely can get at least two om the board from those

It’s between us and Catalans for eighth I think.

Pity they beat Leeds yesterday. We could have done with them losing.

Any chance you could message me the code for your simulation if you have actually done it! Would be interesting...

Us, Leeds and Catalans have to play Wakey yet so it could get interesting.

Happy to.

But it’s in an Excel spready. The results and the table calculations are just on a spreadsheet. The only actual code is the loop.

It’s a bit rough - I did it while eating my lunch - but if you pm me your email address I’ll send you the file.

That was for Little Ivor btw.

Just tried to PM and got the message "Some users couldn’t be added as they have disabled private message receipt."

Oh.

I have no idea what that means. I’ll have a fiddle with my account settings!

Little Ivor - I have a copy of Steves sheet - drop me a line and I'll email it over.

Steve - I have updated it slightly to take into account scores for and against as I saw you'd included point difference in the ranking calculation but the points for and against werent changing on each iteration.

I have to say for something you have just knocked up on a lunch break its pretty complex and interesting to pull apart and get under the hood. Youre well above my skills for Excel!

Im thinking how I can incorporate a draw into it now...

All sorted, thanks! Interesting indeed!

could do with castleford doing us a favour today in france

still need 3 wins, tough ask but done well just to be in with a shout from where we were

I know what you are saying brearley, but the truth is we were in the same place as every other team at the start of the season. We have had a bad time with injuries, so has every other side.

We most certainly were not in the same place as other teams at the start of the year, as each team started with a different squad of players. We have some poor players on longish contracts, the legacy of the last three or so years can't be instantly corrected (Since Anderson took over). We have done very well to be 8th with the squad we have, i feel only Widnes have a poorer squad than us, with Hull KR being similar and in that regard we are overachieving. Most of our squad are rank journeymen, with a few exceptions and some decent youth. There have been some simply terrible decisions regarding signings (from the Bradford signings only Mellor is anything other than a journeyman with Gaskell being the worst value for money member of our squad) and this has left us in the hole we are in. If we play with the same spirit that beat Leeds and Catalan (2nd half) we will avoid relegation, but i will be very suprised if we aren't in the middle 8's.

im happy with obrien and clough from bradford, been good players for us

Well fair enough a lot of that is true enough but what do you see changing, I don't see anything changing, everything that has brought us to the position we are in, is still in place. Yes we have a new coach but we have had lots of new coaches, what is woolford going to do unless he is another N Brown ( we live in hope ) I don't see us getting any better and like you i won't be surprised to finish in the middle eight, we have been flirting with it long enough, we can only over achieve for so long.

If we do finish in the middle Eight , anyone who thinks it will be a cushy ride will be in for a big surprise, there will be some tough sides in there like Toronto for example who do not shirk at playing rough if skill is in short supply, KR will almost certainly be in there and we saw last night what they can do to us,
I am not confident we have the pack to handle such teams, ( if we ever get anything like our first choice forwards out there, The worst thing is that whoever brought the likes of Ferguson and Gaskell to the club is still here They are no more than squad players at best , and we have plenty others of that ilk even when the are not injured.

What we are short of is a bit of what Wakey have, They have a lot less money than us but a far far better side, somebody at that club at least know what they are doing, Every year they get written off but every year they give a good account of themselves, We are the ones with a wealthy chairman and a team in the comfort zone once again fighting for survival.