... and who do they need to come against?

I'm going to discount Salford and Huddersfield from the race. It would take something remarkable. Huddersfield might scrape 4th if the others implode, but they won't catch us.

So that means three teams chasing us and we need to keep at least two of them behind us. What is really in our favour is that those three teams still all have to play each other. So every week someone is dropping points. Looking at the games everyone else has to play (not counting ourselves just yet) I would expect Saints to win all 4. Wigan to win 2/3 and Wakefield to win 1/3. But those records directly affect each other. So for example if Wakefield won 2/3 that means one of the others has dropped points.

If we win two games it's mathematically safe, and imo if we beat Leeds tomorrow it's done. I would be 90% sure that we would make it even if we didn't win another. But failing that I think as long as we can beat either Wigan or Wakefield that will be enough, although you are then at the mercy of other results, albeit unlikely ones. If Salford could turn someone over (preferably Wakefield this week) that would be a huge help.

Thoughts?

2 should do it for us. Would like to go into the last game at cas knowing we are in the 4. No point worrying about others but a saints/Wigan draw Friday night would be brilliant

lets hope the 3 heavy defeats at home and the magic weekend score doesn't come back to bite us regarding points difference.

Agreed, with Saints, Wigan and Wakefield all playing each other, two wins should be enough. Be nice if we could nick something tonight, but win our home games and we should be ok.

2 from 4 is what we need

If we get two then it's mathematically impossible that we miss out. But the more I think about the permutations I think 1 might be enough, although I wouldn't want to leave that to chance.

It is possible for us to win one game and still be out the top 4 though 1 win would theoretically it get us through also.

With us winning only one game, if both Wakefield and Saints win 3 games that would see us out the top 4, unless some bizarre situation of points difference as saints have +67 on us, so our only win (if that was the case) would have to be massive, us losing by a couple of points in the losses and saints get massively drubbed once whilst only winning their 3 games by a couple of points each. possible but unlikely.

Also if both Wigan and Saints win 3 games each and we only won 1 we'd also likely be out, it would similarly to above need Wigan to get thumped by a few in their one loss (out of 4) and not win by many in their 3 wins and for us to amass a load of points in our 1 win and lose by a point or two in the rest, possible of course.
Basically, win two games and we are deffo in the top 4.

Going to be tight .
Let's hope 2 losses to Catalans , and getting beat by Leigh won't come back to haunt us !

Indeed. Your sig needs updating BTW.

Done

If saints beat wakey next week and we beat Wigan then makes it a bit more comfortable for us!

I have to say I'm not confident we'll finish top 4. wakey and wigan both in good form and we're likely to be down on numbers next week due to suspension and injuries. Lose next week and we probably need to win our last 2 to finish in the 4

Do Wakefield and Wigan have to play each other yet?

Yes, we (Wigan) go to Wakey last game of 8's.

It could come to the last game of the S8s (Wakey v Wigan) to decide who gets 3rd and 4th.
We just need to make sure we win 2 games including Wakey and then there's no computation that sees us outside the top 4, our inferior points difference to all the other teams could end up costing us right at the death if we don't get the two wins. At the moment anything can happen, theoretically Salford could still make the top 4 at the moment.

This.

We beat Wigan and Wakey, both at home we are guaranteed 3rd

If we miss out it'll serve us right..and ultimately be a disappointing season given where we were last year and the squad we have. Sounds daft with a cup win but is a run of 3 games a measure of a good team? Because my pass has been poor value in fairness. Seen some sheer tripe tbh. Seen very few entertaining games. If we peak correctly and do make the final or better still win it all is forgiven granted. But if we fail to hit the 4 or if we sneak in and don't make the final how is our year measured?
Radford himself in and around the cup final has called GF the 'big 1' so I imagine him himself wouldn't be happy
Magic 45.0
Leeds near 60
Salford near 60
Hudds near 50
wire draw when 20 up
Doubled by Catalans
Only away win for Leigh in regular season are a poor reflection of what this team can do and have made hard work of it. We should be vying with cas for 1st still when you look at them.
Seems negative this post I know. But tbf I actually fancy us to win it. Just pointing out how it looks if we don't for any reason. I still say best 2 are us and Wigan. If we beat Wigan they're just about gone. If they miss the 4 I'm supremely confident vs every1 else

I still fancy Wigan for the grand final.
Heart says us and Castleford but home form is not good and think we will blow it

Some disappointing results, for sure but it's all about a top four place and then the Grand Final. Cas have been the outstanding team but the league format love it or hate it means you could win 30/30 but still not make Old Trafford.

Wigan lost 62-0 at Wakefield last year and still went on to be Champions. In 2014 Saints won the GF desite losing 40-10 at Rovers and 42-0 at Catalans and conceding 40+ at Warrington and Widnes.

It's the losses to Leigh and Catalans that will be to blame if we miss out. Personally not bothered after the cup success but the players will be. Still in with a shout mind.

Still in our hands so don't back against them. Big games bring out the best in us!

If you beat Wigan this week and Wakefield beat Saints, then saint's will be unable to make the top 4. If Castleford then beat Wigan in rd29 then both Hull and Wakefield finish in the top 4 regardless of the result between Hull and Wakefield

You said it sounds daft. You are right. Fair play for airing your opinion, but I have to challenge you on a few thing.

You say Leeds and Salford near 60. This is not just an exaggeration, it's just a lie.

You say your pass has not been value for money? Not sure what your barometer is for this. Is it quality of play, closeness of results ? Or would I be right in thinking you are only happy if Hull win by a clear 20 point?

You mention us surrendering a big lead at Warrington but conveniently do not mention the 22 point deficit we over came at Widnes.

You then round it off by not mentioning Cas as the stand out team of this season.

You mention the word tripe on your post. A good description of the majority of that post to be fair.

After years of false dawns, false promises, poor coaches, underperforming players, we are not just appearing in finals but winning them and still have a play off spot in our own hand. If that's a tripe return for your money, you need to have a word with yourself.

^^^This^^^