Franchise bids for Super League 2012-2015 will need to be submitted towards the end of 2011 (Not sure exact date.)

Assuming the competition remain with 14 teams. Who do you think will gain a licence and who do you think will lose out. Here is how I see it going.

Teams that for me will defiantly get licences are;

1. Hull FC - (Previous Grade A). Good in all areas but needs to match first team results to off field performance. Still enough to retain A licence.
2. Leeds - (Previous Grade A). Good in all areas. Will retain A licence.
3. Warrington Wolves - (Previous Grade A). Going from strength to strength. Retain A licence.
4. St Helens - (Previous Grade B). Now new stadium is approved, the financials should also improve as a direct result of new facility. Team results are good so may be pushing for A licence this time round.
5. Bradford - (Previous Grade B). Attendances are down, finances are ok, results need to improve. Stadium only in planning stages still so much rests on that. If stadium is approved then retain grade B, if not demote to grade C but still enough for licence.
6. Wigan - (Previous Grade B). Good in all areas but have been trophy less for a while, financially reliant on majority shareholder is also bad point. Still enough to retain A licence.
7. Huddersfield - (Previous Grade C). Need to improve financially but attendances are better, first team results are improving, good stadium, junior development has improved from last bid. May improve licence to grade B this time around.
8. Catalans Dragons - (Previous Grade C). Overall improvement but will most likely retain C status. RFL won’t want to stop this franchise IMO.

That means the following clubs are bidding for the remaining 6 licences. For the purposes of this discussion, I’m assuming all Championship clubs will be putting a bid together. If you know anyone who won’t be please let me know. Also can someone comment on how strong some of the other Championship clubs bids might be? I wouldn’t want to be making this decision that’s for sure. I think a few current SL clubs will be worried though looking at all those bids. Potentially 25 Bids for 14 places. 11 Clubs will miss out!

• Castleford Tigers - (Previous Grade C). For me need the new stadium plans to be approved to get a licence. Wakefield for me are more likely to miss out though.
• Celtic Crusaders - (Previous Grade C). Move to Wrexham seems to be working. I doubt the RFL will let all their investment and work go down the pan by not renewing licence.
• Harlequins RL - (Previous Grade C). Do the RFL have the bottle not to give another licence to the Harlequins. After all they have been trying to make it work in London for a long time.
• Hull KR - (Previous Grade C). Made improvements on field but financially unstable, ground is also poor. Good away support. Will need to offer guarantees in bid to retain licence. Two Hull teams could be seen as a luxury by RFL but derby is massive to the city and game as a whole. Should have enough to retain licence but would be worried if a KR fan.
• Salford City Reds - (Previous Grade C). First stage plans for stadium approved but not far enough down track for RFL potentially. Could miss out for me as weak in many other areas.
• Wakefield Wildcats - (Previous Grade C). For me will not get a licence. Too many other better candidates.
• Widnes - Just missed out last time and are doing everything asked of them to meet criteria. Will be difficult bid to turn down again by RFL. Good fan base too.
• Toulouse Olympique - Currently being 'groomed' for membership. Why else would the RFL have fast tracked into the Championship and invested so much money in them? They currently pay all there away travel which over the three years will be a substantial investment. Will also expand the game.
• Featherstone.
• Barrow.
• Batley.
• Halifax.
• Leigh.
• Sheffield.
• Dewsbury.
• Whitehaven.
• Keighley.

IMO i think we will only have 1 new entry to Super League in 2012 and that will be Widnes. I think the team that should miss out is Harlequins after years of handouts by the RFL the public in London still aint interested.

However i think the 2 teams most likely to lose their franchise are Salford (for the onfield performances and poor crowds) and wakefield (for the ground).

As a Hull fan imo we need HKR to retain their franchise, as having them in superleague has had a big effect on our crowds increasing over the last 3 seasons. As much as we all love to hate HKR ,having them in Superleague is not only good for us but good for the RL in general

I'd agree with much of that. It is maybe worth noting that the only championship clubs currently eligible to apply are Widnes, Halifax and Barrow.

I'd also be careful about singling any club out as 'financially unstable', in that company. The club you've highlighted has smaller problems than several others - just greater scrutiny.

Says the club under scrutiny!

Thing is Andy its all going to happen a lot earlier than that, submissions have to be in by the end of this season as the RL says, that there will then be the due consideration for the next round of licensing and during spring 2011 we will find out where the RFL is placing it's emphasis for the 2012-14 licences. That is so the team coming up has chance to put a side together before 2012.

That's means that by Spring 2011, a couple of months into the 2011 season, one Super League team at least will know they've effectively been relegated however they perform hat year and one Co-Operative Championship team will be looking forward to a period in the top flight.

Or more than one. Could be two or three teams changing places but i doubt it.

I'd love 'Fax and Widnes to be back in SL, two of my favourite away games. I think Widnes are nailed on for a franchise, most probably at the expense of Salford/Wakey, but I wouldn't rule out Halifax. A decent ground, good fan base and a decent squad. Ditch the Harlequins, had their chance and will never get their good days back.

Thanks for Info Wilf. I didn’t realise that decisions were going to be made as earlier as that regarding licences. It makes sense though to allow the team to recruit earlier to give them enough time to be competitive from round 1. With that being the case, clubs looking to secure definite stadium plans have less time than I thought and are therefore more vulnerable to losing their licences.

I get the feeling a lot of people don’t think there will be a lot of change to the teams. However if the RFL stick to their word about how they grade teams, then there may be more changes then people think.

What do people think about Toulouse Olympique chances? The RFL are putting so much into that that club that I feel they could be the shock inclusion, just like Celtic where in the last franchise. Toulouse is a larger city than Perpignan. The inclusion of Toulouse will increase the interest of French TV: more coverage, more TV money, more sponsoring money. It will also give more credibility to the European dimension of the SL.

I think it could very well happen!

Just out of interest, how did you formulate these gradings?

Assuming the 12K capacity is achieved then you will get the extra point but the stadium must meet the standard of a premier sporting competition, which is judged on the quality and quantity of its facilities. I don't think Hull KR could get a point for that. KR will get a C again. However I think a lot of clubs will get a C. So it will be down to RFL to judge who they prefer. If two teams have the same points but one has a newer stadium and offers expansion, I think they will choose that over other criteria such as attendance etc

The criteria are as follows:

1. A stadium capacity of at least 12,000.
2. An average crowd of 10,000 or more
3. An average crowd that fills more than 40 percent of a club's stadium capacity.
4. A turnover of at least £4 million per annum.
5. Solvency, in accordance with accounting definitions of solvency, although this criterion can be satisfied if there is a written owner's guarantee of the club's debts.
6. A reasonable playing strength, which is likely to be satisfied if the club has finished the season in the top eight in each of the last three years.
7. A reasonable playing contribution to junior development, judged by the number of scholarships and performances of the club's under-21 and under-18 Academy teams in the last 3 years.
8. The stadium meeting the standard of a premier sporting competition, which is judged on the quality and quantity of it's facilities in accordance with detailed criteria.
9. Geographical position: clubs that are more than 20 miles away from any other likely Super League club will be allocated one point for this criterion.
10. Compliance with salary cap regulations. Specifically, clubs must not have incurred any breach in the last 3 years.

Work starts soon apparently on the East Stand extension, so we will be over 12k capacity. =#FF00001 point

Plus we also get a point for contribution to the competition, thats for finishing an average of 8th I believe. =#FF00001 point

So that would be 2 points added to our already C grade license, if it goes on the same criteria(which there is no guarantee it will), we could easily get a B grade license.

Personally I dont think we have anything at all to worry about!

What if you finish 12th or below this year?

We both know that aint going to happen

Not this early in the campaign we don't we won five on the bounce last season, then crash, bang, wallop



Injuries can for instance can cripple teams, I reckon after about round 12 things become clearer, I am not suggesting you will not but I am pointing out we have only played 7 games so far.

Yes thats fair enough and I realise that but we have a squad that is not going to finish so low in the table. We have started pretty slow and played some poor rugby so far, we have yet to hit some good form, hopefully this will come. If it wasn't for our no show against Wakefield in the second half, we would be sitting pretty on the same points as you guys and its been pretty poor start for us.

Does belle vue really hold 12k?

And does the solvency criteria discount recent winding up orders?

Surprisingly it does hold 12k although that's never really been tested barring the Cas relegation decider. Without fully knowing the in's and out's and how exactely they determine being 'Solvent' i couldn't say with certainty.

Im not too bothered about Widnes coming up. Would love to see a Cumbrian side in the super league. I dont think the rfl would have the bottle to throw out Harelequins because they have poor attendances. Crusaders with them moving up north will help them but is that too close to Widnes. I hope Toulouse dont get a franchise this time, because they seemed to hurry the Celtic Crusaders through and look what happened, maybe next time around. If Wakefield dont get one will Halifax replace them. With the teams under threat surely that must have an effect on the length of contracts they can offer players. Could be some bargins out there next year

Confirmation of criteria is expected late May, there could be changes There is rumoured to be some discussion about the under writing bit, which could change, because it is felt that the future of a clubs survival should not be just in the hands of one person as that frustrates developing the business.

Bookmarked just in case

Very thought-provoking post.

For me, they will bring just 1 team in with one of Quins, Salford and Wakefield to go out.

Quins and Salford seem to have their problems but have (or will have) good grounds and represent a potentially huge fanbase in 2 major cities. I'm not saying it's morally right but I think they'll hold on in there.

Wakefield have made too many promises for me. Where is the ground they promised in 1998 ?? They have a poor fanbase (both home and away), limited youth development and still no sign of a new ground (if you belive their propaganda about a ground in Stanley you are a fool !). No way can SL be sanctioned at that dump (Queersmell Stadium or whetver they call it this week) for any longer.

So it's bye bye wakey for me.

Incoming, my head says Widnes but my heart says Halifax. Both are strong traditional teams and are pulling respectable crowds in the lower division. They have both proved that they pull bigger crowds at a higher level.

Barrow are too dependent on 1 man's money and a lot of short-term signings. Not enough depth to the finance or squad although I'd like to see a Cumbrian club make it to SL one day.