Completely agree we will be worse off initially if we leave. Its the price to be paid for leaving. If the immigration had been as it is now we would voted to remain.

Labour's spending pledges are incredible - Long-Bailey on Ridge this morning confirmed the £60bn and a future £190bn on house improvements. I would have thought there are better uses of £60bn than cavity wall insulation but there you go.

Jeez I must have imagined the emergency interest rate cut, billions ploughed in through quantitative easing and plunging exchange rates.

Economics is complicated and its difficult to explain the concept of ceteris paribus as a soundbite but politicians disingenuously pretending we didn't have an economic shock that required a massive reaction deserve contempt. It was a shock and a reaction which made us all worse off, witnessed in how we plunged from top to bottom of the economic growth charts.

Quote ="Sal Paradise"Completely agree we will be worse off initially if we leave. Its the price to be paid for leaving. If the immigration had been as it is now we would voted to remain.'" What do you mean if immigration had been as it is now? Net migration has changed very little and is almost exactly the same as it was 10 years ago https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc. ... k-47400679

Quote ="Sal Paradise"Completely agree we will be worse off initially if we leave. Its the price to be paid for leaving. If the immigration had been as it is now we would voted to remain.'" What do you mean if immigration had been as it is now? Net migration has changed very little and is almost exactly the same as it was 10 years ago https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc. ... k-47400679

Why the hell should there be "a price for leaving" ?
We should only be leaving if life is going to be better outside of the EU and whilst immigration was a major source of concern for many who voted leave , whipped up be Farage and the right wing press, there was little control on the numbers entering the UK from outside the EU, with numbers exceeding 300,000 and until Farage stirred up a political frenzy, most people were unaware of this, never mind wanting a fundamental change because of it.
Even after 3 years there is little sign that life will be better outside and you really would have thought that having had so much time to consider the situation, there would have been someone, anyone, who could even try to convince us of a more prosperous future on the outside but, it's still incredibly quiet on this front, even from the most ardent Brexiteers.

Quote ="Sir Kevin Sinfield"What do you mean if immigration had been as it is now? Net migration has changed very little and is almost exactly the same as it was 10 years ago https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc. ... k-47400679'" What I meant was there was a lot of ill feeling towards immigrants and their impact of wages - that sentiment doesn't appear to have the same element of venom that it did in 2016.

Quote ="Sir Kevin Sinfield"What do you mean if immigration had been as it is now? Net migration has changed very little and is almost exactly the same as it was 10 years ago https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc. ... k-47400679'" What I meant was there was a lot of ill feeling towards immigrants and their impact of wages - that sentiment doesn't appear to have the same element of venom that it did in 2016.

Sometimes you have to go backwards in order to move forwards - sporting teams are an example they remove older more experienced players to give youngsters a go - Leeds Rhinos are a classic example - ultimately it led to the most successful era in the club. Businesses invest heavily in new products which don't reach their full potential for many years after - pharmaceuticals being one example.

Just where did that "venom" come from ?

Farage and the Tory fecking press peddling their particular type of right wing narrative, taking full advantage of 10 years of Austerity and general ill feeling - it was an easy sell and helped avoid any "punishment" for those that actually heaped the misery on us all - some of whom are now making fortunes gambling on the future value of Sterling.
To use Woody Woodpeckers catch phrase "so long sucker" - as I said, an easy sell.

I agree with your synopsis re. the ill feeling towards immigrants - not sure about the gambling on the pound.

It's pretty easy to be sure about it - the facts are out there; Crispin Odey for example, is the most egregious example. The facts are [url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-18/brexiteer-odey-renews-hedge-fund-s-reviled-bet-on-pound-plungingfreely available.[/url

I am not say it is not happening - one things is certain he will make a shed load more money if Labour get in - the £ will collapse.

There it is, in a nutshell!

All the bluster about taking back control of our laws etc, but it all boils down to immigration.

Even the Brexit poster boy has said the May / Bojo deal is actually worse than staying in the E.U.

Everyone knows leaving will be worse than staying in the short term - its what the EU will become longer term and how much control you eventually give them. As I said in an earlier post it is very unlikely the EU will stop now - it will always want more influence and control - its a huge beast to feed.

Sterling has devalued by a further 3% since Mr Alexander Johnson took office, FYI.

I'm not sure that you are right about the currency Bren ?

The £ would buy 1.128 when he became PM and is currently buys 1.15
and for the dollar 1.23 when he became PM and 124 today.

To be fair, the rate will have less to do with the PM and will be affected more by whether we are in the EU

The most telling time for the pound was at the time when the referendum result was announced and at that time your £ would have bought 1.20 euros and 1.43 dollars. Therefore a 7% drop against the Euro and a massive 20% fall against the dollar

Of course, none of this could be true, it's just project fear.
The plus side is that our exports become cheaper but as a massive net importer of goods, everything else goes up in price.

It's no wonder that the high street is screwed, with everyone trying to cut out the middle man and buy direct from China or India.
Again, just project fear, none of this is happening at all

What is inflation running at? yes 2% so it seems the economy is at a steady point and no one is predicting a huge hike either. The high street is struggling because property costs in this country are unrealistically high and business rates are quite simply unsupportable. This has nothing to do with Brexit we have been sourcing from China/India/SE Asia for decades - what has changed is the internet and the willingness of consumers to use that supply channel. Perhaps if businesses made that type of shopping more expensive than the high st then it might have a chance otherwise it will just become full of eat/drinking and boutique hotels.

Apologies - I got that from a New Statesman article, but have just realised the date was 3rd August 2019, when they said this:

"With Boris Johnson talking up the prospect of no deal this week, the pound is off on its hell-ward journey once again, dropping around 3 per cent from €1.12 the day he took office to around €1.09 today."

It's around 1.16 today, so I guess the removal of no-deal by the HoP has prompted something of a recovery.

I think its more to do with the gap in the polls between the two major parties

Do you think that inflation and interest rates are low because the ecconomy is in rude health ?

I put it to you that interest rates have fallen to the floor in order to help a dying/stagnating ecconomy and that as we just about crawl out of 10 years of austerity, there are some who believe that a fundamental change in how we trade is a good thing.
Even you now admit to the "short term" contraction in the ecconomy, post Brexit, although NOBODY is prepared to define just how long "short term" is. however to invite a contraction onto a stagnant ecconomy is just plain stupid.
It's a little bit like a pilot losing power in one engine and deciding to turn the other one off to save fuel.

I think inflation is a reflection of a competitive economy - if you raised interest rates many will not be able to make their mortgage repayments. Our interest rates are in line with the rest of world so it would suggest we are not in a worse state than many others - if you compare us to the Germans we are doing OK.

I always said if we leave things will get worse - the unknown is: where will the EU be in 5 years time and how long will it take for the economy to be recover.

Despite what some claim we are still mostly independent economies who just enjoy the benefits of very favourable trading. Saying another European economy is doing worse than the UK as some sort of proof that the EU is the reason is a complete straw man.

Obviously we are all linked as part of the European and global economies but what happens domestically and globally is a lot more important to how an economy fares than what happens at an EU level.

Still, whilst we're here, this is the graph - we were travelling along ok until something seismic happened in 2016, from which we have never recovered.



You keep saying this but never come up with anything other than some weird insinuation. I'm trying to work out what it is you're afraid of which will happen almost overnight.

Answer the point is the German economy in recession? Nobody could ever predict where we will be outside of the EU because it has never happened so all predictions are just economic models and we all know how accurate they are. We went into the EU to ease trade when every country had their own currency - it was never envisaged that the EU would evolve into a super state whereby our laws are set in central Europe over which we have a very limited input.

If we had left in 2016 with no deal we would have been 2 years down the road of rebuilding our economy outside of the EU as it is we in Hotel California - sadly.

I don't see the relevance to be honest.

What does it matter if it is? You sound like a Daily Express reader to me. Maybe the economic success of the UK and Germany is the World War III their readership dream about. Germany in RECESSION - [iYaaayyy![/i German business is BOOMING - [iBooooooo![/i

If we'd left 2 years ago, our ecconomy would be in recession and everyone would know that, financially, we'd have been better off staying in.

In the time that has passed since the referendum, everyone now admits that, we would be worse off on the outside.
Of course, some of the right wing ERG and their big money backers try to put a brave face on things but, even this is done with fingers firmly crossed.
I suppose it's one way to keep the masses in their place.

I agree about the financial position - most agree but I don't think we voted to leave because of the money it was about who controls the country and the longer we have been in the EU the more control we have given away - even you as a down trodden mass - must accept that point.

Wait until Corbyn gets in and then you really will no about keeping the masses in their place