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| Quote ="Cronus"I wonder...if the EU refuse an extension (or the idiotic Benn bill is somehow circumnavigated) and the only options are Johnson's deal or no deal - what will Labour do?
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I suspect if Corbyn/McDonnell try to whip them into opposing the deal we'll see enough rebels to get it through.'"
Labour (well the leadership at least) seem to be able to combine cynicism with stupidity on this issue, so I really don’t know. ‘Fortunately’ for them, it probably won’t come to that, but it is a question that has occurred to me too.
I think the best/least bad thing they could do would be to allow Labour MPs to vote freely, with their conscience. They’ve come this far sitting on the fence and trying to avoid upsetting either side (with limited success), so they might as well see it through. Not blocking it, but not endorsing it either. Cake and eat it sort of thing. There’ll be no credit, only blame - so making the Tories own it as far as possible should be the aim, politically.
They’ll still get an election, and any deal that Johnson strikes will likely be close enough to May’s ‘worst deal in history’, that his right flank will still be vulnerable to Farage.
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| So, it appears that Boris "do or die" Johnson has started to hit just the same problems as his predecessor and the "bribes" to the DUP still aren't enough to secure their backing for a deal.
Prepare for a GE with the Tories promoting a no deal Brexit - what an absolute fecking mess. 
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| Quote ="wrencat1873"So, it appears that Boris "do or die" Johnson has started to hit just the same problems as his predecessor and the "bribes" to the DUP still aren't enough to secure their backing for a deal.
Prepare for a GE with the Tories promoting a no deal Brexit - what an absolute fecking mess.
'"
His deal with a confirmatory referendum vs remain, might pass parliament but I think he’s too beholden to the Brexiteers to allow/want that.
If the government proposes a bill and it is amended, does it have to proceed or can they withdraw it? I assume it has to proceed, which’d mean even proposing it carries risk for him.
Edit, the Spectator pushing the idea that the EU might tell the UK parliament that it is this deal or no deal (or, technically, Remain via unilateral revocation of article 50). It’d give them (and us) certainty but I can only see it if BJ has given up the lot on NI. Actually, it strangely offers benefits to all sides - BJ gets his deal, JC and the DUP get to blame-dodge.
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| Quote ="Mild Rover"His deal with a confirmatory referendum vs remain, might pass parliament but I think he’s too beholden to the Brexiteers to allow/want that.
If the government proposes a bill and it is amended, does it have to proceed or can they withdraw it? I assume it has to proceed, which’d mean even proposing it carries risk for him.'"
I'm sure that Boris and Cummings have a couple of tricks up their collective sleeves to take us past 30th October (and a no deal Brexit) and they are doing well to keep them under wraps - time will tell.
The point regarding N. Ireland though, wont go away and increasingly it seems that either they (the politicians) trash the Good Friday Agreement too gain Brexit or we remain.
The EU wont want to continue with negotiations indefinitely and you can see the next "offer" of an extension being much longer.
2 years was muted after May's 3rd failure and that would cause a fair amount of discord amongst MP and the voting public.
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| The government has been thwarting Brexit since the vote was declared. They don't want what the majority of the British people want, so in affect they are traitors. That's why they chose remainer May in the first place. The EU is a gravy train that politicians have grown fat on while their consitituents face austerity measurements while at the same time criminals, terrorists, and other wasters come flooding into OUR country with more rights and given council houses with white goods.
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| Quote ="tonyblaidd"The government has been thwarting Brexit since the vote was declared. They don't want what the majority of the British people want, so in affect they are traitors. That's why they chose remainer May in the first place. The EU is a gravy train that politicians have grown fat on while their consitituents face austerity measurements while at the same time criminals, terrorists, and other wasters come flooding into OUR country with more rights and given council houses with white goods.'"
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| Quote ="wrencat1873"I'm sure that Boris and Cummings have a couple of tricks up their collective sleeves to take us past 30th October (and a no deal Brexit) and they are doing well to keep them under wraps - time will tell.
The point regarding N. Ireland though, wont go away and increasingly it seems that either they (the politicians) trash the Good Friday Agreement too gain Brexit or we remain.
The EU wont want to continue with negotiations indefinitely and you can see the next "offer" of an extension being much longer.
2 years was muted after May's 3rd failure and that would cause a fair amount of discord amongst MP and the voting public.'"
Have you seen the latest news?
Boris has committed to a deal with special arrangements that are definitely not just an updated version of the original NI-only backstop, as confirmed by Barnier and the ever-impartial Kuessenberg.
The DUP are not yet on board. They lost their veto, obviously.
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| Quote ="Cronus"I wonder...if the EU refuse an extension (or the idiotic Benn bill is somehow circumnavigated) and the only options are Johnson's deal or no deal - what will Labour do?
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I suspect if Corbyn/McDonnell try to whip them into opposing the deal we'll see enough rebels to get it through.'"
The splinters in Corbyn's backside must be really digging in now.
He's looked uncomfortable on Brexit for many, many weeks now, with very few of his foot soldiers having been able to convey anything close to a coherent policy.
I think that Labour are screwed for a little while, with both sides of the Brexit debate feeling let down by their will he / wont he "policy".
Having said that, I cant see the EU doing anything that may prevent a U-Turn by any new government (assuming that there is to be an election).
Everything now hinges on whether Boris does have a plan to circumvent the Benn bill.
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| Quote ="wrencat1873"The splinters in Corbyn's backside must be really digging in now.
He's looked uncomfortable on Brexit for many, many weeks now, with very few of his foot soldiers having been able to convey anything close to a coherent policy.
I think that Labour are screwed for a little while, with both sides of the Brexit debate feeling let down by their will he / wont he "policy".
Having said that, I cant see the EU doing anything that may prevent a U-Turn by any new government (assuming that there is to be an election).
Everything now hinges on whether Boris does have a plan to circumvent the Benn bill.'"
His deal might make it through Parliament. Even if it came with a confirmatory referendum, I think it would get a majority in the country, for a variety of reasons. I mean, who’d be the face of the Remain campaign?
It’s just a re-jigged version of TM’s, with looser ties to NI accepted in return to fewer formal trade commitments made up front - but BJ has more goodwill with the ERG than TM. Just depends on whether they’re squeamish about the DUP.
It depends on your comparator, but it could be worse, imo. Damn sight better than no deal, anyway.
On your last point, I assume he needs a deal approved by Parliament, rather than just one agreed with the EU?
Another wrinkle is that NI being in a different customs territory is currently unlawful. I think there’s an arguable case that this represents that, but it might not hold water legally. It is being tested in the courts already.
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| Quote ="tonyblaidd"The government has been thwarting Brexit since the vote was declared. They don't want what the majority of the British people want, so in affect they are traitors. That's why they chose remainer May in the first place. The EU is a gravy train that politicians have grown fat on while their consitituents face austerity measurements while at the same time criminals, terrorists, and other wasters come flooding into OUR country with more rights and given council houses with white goods.'"
Wow - straight from Daily Mail central office.
Are you blaming the EU for the 10+ years of austerity or might this have been a political choice by the Troy Party, who's drive to cut services to the poorest members of society is part of their DNA.
What percentage of our immigration numbers do you label as criminals, terrorists and wasters and are these just the EU immigrants or is it all immigrants.
Are those people working within the NHS who are from outside the UK also under your "criminals, terrorists and wasters" banner ?
Farage must be very proud of you.
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| Quote ="tonyblaidd"The government has been thwarting Brexit since the vote was declared. They don't want what the majority of the British people want, so in affect they are traitors. That's why they chose remainer May in the first place. The EU is a gravy train that politicians have grown fat on while their consitituents face austerity measurements while at the same time criminals, terrorists, and other wasters come flooding into OUR country with more rights and given council houses with white goods.'"
Wow - really?
Agree about the MPs doing what they can to thwart Brexit - 6 of them were there yesterday at our expense trying to scupper any deal!!, that also applies to the likes of the BBC and Channel 4 - who in a desperate attempt gave the IRA or what is left of it 15 minutes at the start of last night's program - why!!
Also agree about the gravy train at Brussels - the accounts haven't been signed off for years
The rest is bonkers
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| Juncker rules out an extension. Assuming that is the official EU line, it’s over, bar the voting, which can only go one way.
Finally.
Just the FTA to sort now.
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| Junker has ruled out a further Brexit extension so, it's time for Noel Edmunds, deal or no deal, which allows Boris a win /win, although, I've no idea how this would affect or be affected by the Benn act ??
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| Quote ="wrencat1873"Junker has ruled out a further Brexit extension so, it's time for Noel Edmunds, deal or no deal, which allows Boris a win /win, although, I've no idea how this would affect or be affected by the Benn act ??'"
Exactly what I said would happen: the UK-EU reach an agreement. The EU agrees to reject any further extension. We are therefore leaving on 31st Oct and MPs are now voting for the new deal or no-deal.
As for the Benn act, if Parliament rejects the new deal on Saturday, Boris has to write to the EU and request an extension. Juncker has stated there will be no extension. In that case I imagine the new deal would then be put to Parliament again before 31st Oct.
I see Corbyn has already rejected the deal and urged Labour MPs to do likewise. Does he actually understand what will happen if it doesn't go through?
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| Quote ="Cronus"Exactly what I said would happen: the UK-EU reach an agreement. The EU agrees to reject any further extension. We are therefore leaving on 31st Oct and MPs are now voting for the new deal or no-deal.
As for the Benn act, if Parliament rejects the new deal on Saturday, Boris has to write to the EU and request an extension. Juncker has stated there will be no extension. In that case I imagine the new deal would then be put to Parliament again before 31st Oct.
I see Corbyn has already rejected the deal and urged Labour MPs to do likewise. Does he actually understand what will happen if it doesn't go through?
[size=85*waits for the usual person to tell me it's not up to Labour to get it through[/size
'"
It would appear that Junker has gone above his rank and hat it's not within his remit to allow or deny a further extension so, it's as you were.
The "fat lady" has just sat back down
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| Time for our resident Tories to suddenly abandon all their objections to previous deals and proclaim this a great victory? Despite, as we told Sal the other day, Johnson abandoning everything and everyone to try and get a deal at the last minute.
From a remainer point of view, it's an extreme form of Brexit which is most unfortunate and for which there is no mandate. But at least we have clarity now for what the starting point for the re-accession negotiations in a couple of years will be.
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| Quote ="The Ghost of '99"Time for our resident Tories to suddenly abandon all their objections to previous deals and proclaim this a great victory? Despite, as we told Sal the other day, Johnson abandoning everything and everyone to try and get a deal at the last minute.
From a remainer point of view, it's an extreme form of Brexit which is most unfortunate and for which there is no mandate. But at least we have clarity now for what the starting point for the re-accession negotiations in a couple of years will be.'"
I don't proclaim it as a great victory - I actually don't think it will it get through the commons tomorrow. It is the best we can hope for given everyone's and I mean everyone's red lines. No deal with all its ramifications has always been for me the only clean break everything else is a fog to one side or the other.
What I don't understand is Labour's view that it is a bad deal because the UK get to decide on its own employment law and environmental policies. They keep saying they will easily win the next GE so they will be able to set employment legislation far more advantageous to workers than anything the EU could legislate for. Same goes for environmental policies. McDonald was on the TV this morning suggesting they could do a better deal with closer ties to the Customs union and the single market and signing up to the EU rights on labour and environmental and the EU were receptive - no wonder they were - its remain without any influence.
They either don't believe they can win a GE or they don't actually believe their own bile on labour rights and environmental. Or just maybe they will do anything to discredit Boris/Tories regardless of the long-term implications for their party or the country. If they vote this down they will be slaughtered at a GE - hopefully this will happen soon.
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| Unless somebody offers a plan for doing something else, it shouldn’t be voted down, imo.
Just voting no and asking for an extension with no clear purpose would be farcical. That’s not to say it won’t happen, unfortunately.
I’m not a fan of BJ or his deal/plan, but i have to acknowledge it is at least a plan.
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| Dominic Raab today.
“It’s a great deal for Northern Ireland...they get to keep frictionless trade”.
I suppose we get the politicians we deserve.
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| Does Raab know the significance of NI within the UK? He didn't know the significance of Dover in cross channel frictionless trade.
Johnson was in NI last year and said no Tory Gov't should or would create a border down the Irish Sea. Now he has!
As for looking after the democratic vote of 2016, there was a 1.27m majority on a turnout of 33.5m The 1.27m disappeared a long time ago. So now there is no majority for Leave, no mandate and no reason to Leave.
All good fun. Roll on the next 24 hours.
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| Quote ="Father Ted"
As for looking after the democratic vote of 2016, there was a 1.27m majority on a turnout of 33.5m The 1.27m disappeared a long time ago. So now there is no majority for Leave, no mandate and no reason to Leave.
'"
Wow, have we just had another referendum i missed?
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| Quote ="Biff Tannen"Wow, have we just had another referendum i missed?'"
I was just sat here pondering the same.
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| Quote ="Father Ted"
As for looking after the democratic vote of 2016, there was a 1.27m majority on a turnout of 33.5m The 1.27m disappeared a long time ago. So now there is no majority for Leave, no mandate and no reason to Leave. '"
Out of my depth on this particular forum so rarely if ever comment on here, however I voted remain, but as a country we voted to leave, and I accept that. Any future vote on the issue of Brexit, whether I agree with it or not, would be for us to leave - that is the democratic choice we made. Anything else makes a people’s choice a joke.
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| Quote ="ColD"Out of my depth on this particular forum so rarely if ever comment on here, however I voted remain, but as a country we voted to leave, and I accept that. Any future vote on the issue of Brexit, whether I agree with it or not, would be for us to leave - that is the democratic choice we made. Anything else makes a people’s choice a joke.'"
Absolutely right. But there are two main issues. No majority to get anything through in Parliament, and the fact the majority of MPs are actually remainers and are doing everything they can to avoid Brexit in the hope that somehow they can force a 2nd referendum or cancel the whole thing.
Today was a shambles. Labour making up manufactured excuses not to back the deal, the rest rejecting it out of hand simply because they reject Brexit.
There are some strong signals out of Brussels tonight that no extension will be granted. Letwin and Benn can take a long walk off Wigan Pier. The 31st would once again be the deadline set in stone and I imagine the new deal would be put to Parliament again this week. At that point MPs are simply voting for the new deal, or no deal. There really is only one option.
But - even though I think Johnson and several EU figureheads have quietly agreed to this strategy I actually think most in the EU won't have the cojones to reject an extension and the merry-go-round will continue. 
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| It seems Boris has sent the letter as required by the Benn act, albeit unsigned. He has accompanied it with a (signed) letter stating he believes any delay would be a mistake, and has also phoned EU leaders to clarify this is 'Parliament's letter, not mine.'
I wonder how EU law handles legal requests made under coercion?
The plot thickens. 
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