Maybe 27 is the weakness of the opposition. They will all want different things to benefit themselves. We are only looking for one thing

With the rhetoric on both sides, "no deal" is looking more and more likely, especially with the French election and then the German election still to come, which will eat into the already short time scale.

The "no deal, is better than a bad deal" is likely to be tested.

The economy is already slowing and we're in for some of the sh*t that "project fear" was bangnig on about pre the referendum.

Of course they were only making things up so, everything will be just fine.

If anything goes wrong it'll be blamed on Johnny Foreigner rather than the decision to leave.

The UK should counter by withdrawing funding until after agreement is reached (they can sue if they wish)and until clean audited accounts are available and the countries in which money has disappeared, via alleged fraud, over the years make those losses good.

Like that would help ??
At the moment, we are still part of the EU and we have agreed payments until such time that a change is made.
What if the "divorce" takes 5 years ? are you suggesting that we should withdraw our contributions and, just for balance, what would you think if the Germans or French did the same or, if the EU stopped all the payments coming back our way ??

Great negotiating style, you could be Mrs May's advisor.
They haven't got a clue either !

Given we contributed around £13.1 billion and received only £4.5 billion in 2016, I'd take that deal. An extra £8.6 billion that doesn't go to propping up weak, corrupt and failing economies in Eastern Europe and the Iberian Peninsula. That's almost the entire annual budget of the Home Office. And if it wasn't for the "rebate" Thatcher negotiated those numbers would be even more damning.

If Germany and France withdrew their payments the entire EU debacle would die, just as it deserves to. The entire project is flawed beyond belief and only the dogged stubbornness of those at its helm keeps it going. Yer know, the people who weren't elected and can't be removed.






While the example given is unrealistic, the concept is called leverage. If you don't use it in negotiations, you might as well not bother. It's why both sides are playing hardball at the moment - they both want the other side coming to the table feeling as though they're in a weak position. So the EU announce enormous demands before talks even begin and May comes back with an equally hard line. Nothing to see here.

So you are agreeing with T. May, the biggest "wind bag" on the political scene.
I was no fan of Thatcher but, she at least followed through on her promises.
T. May can only manage sound bites "fair society", "strong and stable", "just about managing".
She has no substance and although, when negotiating, it's usual to ask for more than you want/need, in order to show compromise, it's also wise not to alienate any group who you may wish to negotiate with.

We all know about the Eurocrats that weren't elected, a bit like the House of Lords ??
and we all know the The EU is a long way from perfect, a long way and quite frankly, it looks like pure fantasy to think that any agreement will be reached in the 2 year time scale, which, will be only 18 months by the time The Germans have been to the polls.
THe one thing we know about the EU is that, they dont do anything quickly.

Given we put more in than we get out we will be better off - seems like a plan to me!!

I would suggest this will be all done within the 2 year time frame and we will revert to WTO terms on both sides

If we fall back to WTO then, no agreement would have been reached ??

It will mutually agree to revert to WTO terms and have done with it.

The EU desperately needs the UK money which is why they wont to get that first - it wont happen the UK would be crazy to offer any financial settlement its not in the treaty so unenforceable

It's pleasing to see the top earners are doing mighty fine following our impending exit. www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 22166.html I wonder how it's going for the under-class who facilitated this brave new world.

It's pleasing to see the top earners are doing mighty fine following our impending exit. www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 22166.html I wonder how it's going for the under-class who facilitated this brave new world.

Quote ="The Devil's Advocate"It's pleasing to see the top earners are doing mighty fine following our impending exit. www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 22166.html I wonder how it's going for the under-class who facilitated this brave new world.'" It would have been the same story had we voted to remain. These multi-billionaires exist in a completely different universe to multi-millionaires never mind the underclasses! This ridiculous wealth accumulation started long before Brexit.

Quote ="The Devil's Advocate"It's pleasing to see the top earners are doing mighty fine following our impending exit. www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 22166.html I wonder how it's going for the under-class who facilitated this brave new world.'" It would have been the same story had we voted to remain. These multi-billionaires exist in a completely different universe to multi-millionaires never mind the underclasses! This ridiculous wealth accumulation started long before Brexit.

Looks like the French will be staying "in the club"
/www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/07/emmanuel-macron-wins-french-presidency-marine-le-pen

So Merkel gets to rule Germany and France

[url=https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/07/the-great-british-brexit-robbery-hijacked-democracySomeone is starting to join the dots...[/url

A former Rothschild investment banker set to unite divided and fractured France? Vive la France!

Yep, although Le Pen has always targeted the next election, not this one. Reasonable success this time is merely a bonus and possibly an indicator of things to come.

A few more years of an ever more desperate and tyrannical EU, an unstoppable migrant crisis, the Euro debacle, further Islamist attacks on French soil, deepening resentment against the establishment and growing unemployment, and things could easily be different next time round. Macron seems too soft to succeed, especially coming in as an inexperienced one-man band.

I'm a little disappointed - not because I particularly support Le Pen but because things need to change. The liberal mindset has only created division and failure and more of the same will only exacerbate the existing problems. France could have shaken things up and truly driven the message home to those at the helm of the EU who simply will not accept any form of change.

Who knows, significant change within the EU could have seen the UK reconsider its exit.

Thanks for that analysis Nigel - it seems that the right also shed tears when things don't go their way?

The gnashing of teeth from the anti-Euro brigade is interesting; the will of 51.9% of the 72.2% who voted in the EU referendum in the UK must be respected, but the French electorate got it wrong when 66% of a 75.3% turnout voted to reject the gentrified version of fascism that Le Pen represents?

This result shores up the EU significantly, and leaves the UK looking increasingly isolated.

Methinks you're reading too much into 'I'm a little disappointed...because things need to change".



Shed tears? Gnashing teeth? Please.

Yes, I believe the EU needs to dramatically change or die, and this would have been a great opportunity to force change on those inflicting their failed ideals on Europe. But hey ho, such is life. We'll be out soon enough, not my problem if Le Froggies choose to drag their pain out for a few more years. [size=60(awaits accusations of racism from snowflake)[/size

It's their choice. That's how democracy works (though you'd struggle to get that message through to Remoaners in the UK). More of the same for La Republique seems an odd choice - but by all accounts many voted against Le Pen rather than for Macron. The guy has barely put his manifesto together and has no party. Not a good state of affairs.

I'm not sure voting in Le Pen would make the state of affairs better (?).

You're possibly right in the bit I've bolded. I'd hope that if we were faced with similar options in the UK, people would use their vote first and foremost to reject fascism, even if that went against their belief on whether to remain or leave the EU. The lesser of two evils if you will (for those who'd see it that way).

Indeed
It's most significant that Le Penn's share of the vote, although strong in the first round at 35%, didn't budge in the second round and she again polled 35% (or pretty damn close).
My prediction of 6/7 weeks ago was bang on



Thankfully the vast majority of French, German, Dutch and English voters have said NO to the far right.

Having said that, something has to be done to slow the exodus from Africa, which seems to be the main influx of people into Europe.

What people voting for the unknown !
That would never happen in good old Blighty





You talk about no manifesto, which is still probably better than utter nonsense and drivel.

Yours

Snowflake

Indeed. That's a bit difficult for the populists though.

IMO there needs to be a combination of pressure and incentives on certain countries with the aim of improving conditions there. Only when issues such as war, poverty and the effects of climate change are addressed will the migration slow down.

Think Africa needs a country to "do a Turkey" when it comes to dealing with migrants. It will cost billions but it would prevent a lot of migrants coming to Europe. Trouble is nowhere in Africa seems anywhere close to Turkey in being able to do that.

Simply pulling up the drawbridge and ignoring it won't work.

I agree.
It's a crazy state of affairs when gangs of criminals can be allowed to charge desperate people significant cash on the "chance" of getting to Europe.
Although it would be utterly wrong to deny refuge to genuine asylum seekers, permitting "organised" mass movement is just wrong, on a number of levels.

It would seem harsh to rescue these people and return them to the port that they left but, without something like this, the problem will continue to grow.

As you suggest, with some dialogue and even some "incentives" between the most affected nations, on would expect that the numbers could be heavily reduced.

Of course, it suits some factions to portray all of this as "free movement" within the EU but there are multiple issues and they clearly need addressing.

Western countries need to agree a common approach to "persuade" the worst countries to sort themselves out. They also need to sort out neighbouring countries to ensure they can look after refugees.

It costs money - the reason for the foreign aid budget. Otherwise they'll turn up anyway.

A lot of what is wrong with Africa is down to western policy (e.g Libya) and it would be in our long term interests to sort it out.

Radicalisation always increases in chaotic places and situations. Sort that out and people turn away from it. However it's easier said than done.

It's a long term problem that won't be sorted overnight and doesn't play well with populists and electioneering.