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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"We have very interest rates which keeps mortgages at very affordable levels we have very low inflation numbers, so whilst wages may not have grown household costs have actually dropped - lower fuel costs, lower food costs etc.
Lower corporation tax means company's have more available cash to invest - if you believe Keynes that is the start of growth in the 10 year cycle - whilst they may not give a damn they will if it keeps them in a job or it means the company has the available cash to pay them?
This is a culture that encourages the best to progress where earnings are basically limitless - so if you are really good this is a great country to maximise the earning potential of your skill set. Why else would so many want to come here as opposed to France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Holland Belgium?
Are you saying crime levels are rising?'"
You're wasting your time, wrencat and his mates simply want Labour in, they have no substantive argument as to why and what Labour would do.
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"We have very interest rates which keeps mortgages at very affordable levels we have very low inflation numbers, so whilst wages may not have grown household costs have actually dropped - lower fuel costs, lower food costs etc.
Lower corporation tax means company's have more available cash to invest - if you believe Keynes that is the start of growth in the 10 year cycle - whilst they may not give a damn they will if it keeps them in a job or it means the company has the available cash to pay them?
This is a culture that encourages the best to progress where earnings are basically limitless - so if you are really good this is a great country to maximise the earning potential of your skill set. Why else would so many want to come here as opposed to France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Holland Belgium?
Are you saying crime levels are rising?'"
Where are you measuring from ?
Yes, we have extremely low interest rates but, they were at 0.5% in 2009, so no credit to the Tories for that and wages have been largely stagnant over the same period.
The only social group that is better off, compared to when the Tories cam to power are the over 65's, so , I just dont get where you believe that we are in a better position.
Finally, could you please point out which household costs have reduced over the last 7/8 years as I'm really struggling to find any.
Having said all of this, I dont think that anyone really believes that Labour would control national expenditure better than the current government and their plans to re nationalise some of the utilities is quite scary, although, this is irrelevant as they will be nowhere near in the forthcoming election.
The major benefit for most people has been the extremely low cost of borrowing, which has given many people more cash in their pockets but, the interest rates "crashed" before the Tories came into power.
The danger with the interest rates, though, is the alarming levels of personal debt and IF, inflation starts to increase more quickly, interest rates would have to increase and this would have a massive effect on our potential for growth.
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"It will also get us away from low taxation, reasonable growth levels, solid employment levels, increased living standards, an economy that embraces talent, low corporation tax, low crime levels etc.'"
Low taxation - overall tax burden has increased (you seem to fall for the idiocy surrounding the basic rate of income tax)
Reasonable growth levels - growth in what - headline DGP? How does that translate into an improvement in people's day to day lives?
Solid employment levels - yes, although how many are part-time; zero-hours; pensioners carrying on working because of financial need; and the involuntary self-employed?
Increased living standards - not for most people. Still below 2008 levels.
An economy that embraces talent? By under-funding and undervaluing scientific research, etc - ie the only things that can make the country's future prosperous.
Low corporation tax - yes, but is that a good thing? Especially as notwithstanding it being low so many avoid it my transfer-pricing, sale and lease-back arrangements; offshoring intellectual property and royalties; etc. Lower CT means a higher personal tax burden for all UK resident and domiciled taxpayers and reduced funds for public services. Granted dividend payments are enhanced but given the lack of investment returns it hardly helps.
Low crime? Only the other day it was announced there had been a huge increase in violent crime in the capital city, including of knife and gun crime.
Are you reading 19th century newspapers or something?
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"We have very interest rates which keeps mortgages at very affordable levels we have very low inflation numbers, so whilst wages may not have grown household costs have actually dropped - lower fuel costs, lower food costs etc.
Lower corporation tax means company's have more available cash to invest - if you believe Keynes that is the start of growth in the 10 year cycle - whilst they may not give a damn they will if it keeps them in a job or it means the company has the available cash to pay them?
This is a culture that encourages the best to progress where earnings are basically limitless - so if you are really good this is a great country to maximise the earning potential of your skill set. Why else would so many want to come here as opposed to France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Holland Belgium?
Are you saying crime levels are rising?'"
Low interest rates are a moral hazard created by the excessive credit and its consequence - the 2008 crisis. Low-interest rates serve to reduce investment returns and so stifle investment. They also result in excessive debt burden being taken on - which will lead to another, deeper crisis. As to affordability, only for those with pre-existing mortgages - who are in effect being subsidised by savers and the prudent. For new borrowers, capital values are higher as a result (ie no more affordability. In fact, if you read a 21st century newspapers you may realise that young people are in fact priced out of the housing market in many areas even where earning several times the national average income).
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| Quote ="DHM"Labour are 20 points behind in the polls, only 17% of the electorate believe Corbyn would make a decent PM. The fixed-term parliaments act was put in place to specifically stop governments calling snap elections when the polls suit them.
All May had to do was point to the cliff she wanted Corbyn to lead the Labour Party off and he ran at it like the political moron he is.
Jeremy, engage the peanut you have masquerading as a brain and try and imagine what the political landscape will look like in two years time. An incompetent Brexit agreement, including two years of slap downs for our negotiating team, a health service in ruin and the Scots leaving the U.K. All brought on us by Theresa May. She will have no bunker to hide in, no excuses and will have to face months of election build up.
But no, Jeremy, you're living in a delusional dream world.
The other rumour I heard was that Corbyn was thinking of stepping down in autumn. No wonder May wanted an election now.'"
Talking of delusional dream worlds - do you really think Jeremy, of the Metropolitan Elite, will be reading your message to him on a rugby league fans website? Do you think he knows or cares what rugby league is?
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| Quote ="Dally"Low taxation - overall tax burden has increased (you seem to fall for the idiocy surrounding the basic rate of income tax)
Reasonable growth levels - growth in what - headline DGP? How does that translate into an improvement in people's day to day lives?
Solid employment levels - yes, although how many are part-time; zero-hours; pensioners carrying on working because of financial need; and the involuntary self-employed?
Increased living standards - not for most people. Still below 2008 levels.
An economy that embraces talent? By under-funding and undervaluing scientific research, etc - ie the only things that can make the country's future prosperous.
Low corporation tax - yes, but is that a good thing? Especially as notwithstanding it being low so many avoid it my transfer-pricing, sale and lease-back arrangements; offshoring intellectual property and royalties; etc. Lower CT means a higher personal tax burden for all UK resident and domiciled taxpayers and reduced funds for public services. Granted dividend payments are enhanced but given the lack of investment returns it hardly helps.
Low crime? Only the other day it was announced there had been a huge increase in violent crime in the capital city, including of knife and gun crime.
Are you reading 19th century newspapers or something?'"
I would say there are are millions of people who have a better standard of living than they did in 2008 - anyone who has had any kind of career development and there will be millions will be in a better position than they were in 2008.
Low CT means corporations can either pay more dividends - benefits most with a pension, can invest in people or projects and they generate more cash that they can decide what to do with rather than the state deciding for them. Has the overall take for CT dropped/increase/stayed the same since the drop in rates?
Growth GDP seems to be growing or is that being made up by the ONS? 2.6% in 2014 etc.
This country is one of the most innovative in the world for its size- what bit of scientific research is not carried out here?
Crime rates have been falling in this country since 2003
I ask again if this country is so bad why do so many want to come and work here as opposed to other sizable economies in Europe?
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| Quote ="Dally"Low interest rates are a moral hazard created by the excessive credit and its consequence - the 2008 crisis. Low-interest rates serve to reduce investment returns and so stifle investment. They also result in excessive debt burden being taken on - which will lead to another, deeper crisis. As to affordability, only for those with pre-existing mortgages - who are in effect being subsidised by savers and the prudent. For new borrowers, capital values are higher as a result (ie no more affordability. In fact, if you read a 21st century newspapers you may realise that young people are in fact priced out of the housing market in many areas even where earning several times the national average income).'"
Complete rubbish - low interest only reduce investment returns if you stick the money in the bank. Invested correctly in capital projects low interest rates give very interesting investment opportunities. As a business we can borrow any amount we want at 1.4% over base - guess what we have borrowed substantial sums and invested in a variety of projects which we would not otherwise have as low interest rates shorten ROI time frames considerably
Young people can buy property in a host of places - plenty of cheap property in Bradford, Wakefield, Halifax, Oldham, Rochdale etc. Yes they may not be able to buy in London or Cornwall but there are plenty of places young people can afford to live the fact they choose not to is a different matter
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"I ask again if this country is so bad why do so many want to come and work here as opposed to other sizable economies in Europe?'"
I can't remember which channel showed it but there was a documentary before the EU referendum following the lives of a few Eastern Europeans preparing to come to the UK. One lad had been researching unskilled factory work and said he could earn more money in one day in the UK than he could earn in Poland in a week.
It didn't really ring true with the experiences I've had of working alongside Eastern Europeans about 17 years ago during a Summer job I had while at Uni. Most of them saw the UK as a stepping stone to the USA and saw UK factory work as 'donkey work for crap pay'. Some of them were massively overskilled for the work they were doing, often fluent in 4 or 5 languages. Whether or not they are now living the American dream... Who knows?
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"Complete rubbish - low interest only reduce investment returns if you stick the money in the bank. Invested correctly in capital projects low interest rates give very interesting investment opportunities. As a business we can borrow any amount we want at 1.4% over base - guess what we have borrowed substantial sums and invested in a variety of projects which we would not otherwise have as low interest rates shorten ROI time frames considerably
Young people can buy property in a host of places - plenty of cheap property in Bradford, Wakefield, Halifax, Oldham, Rochdale etc. Yes they may not be able to buy in London or Cornwall but there are plenty of places young people can afford to live the fact they choose not to is a different matter'"
Just taking up on your low interest rates, which, of course are beneficial to anyone borrowing money.
IF inflation continues to rise, which it has slowly begun to do (largely on the back of currency inflation) and still has some way to go, what happens to the millions of people and businesses that have borrowed using "cheap money".
A 0.5 or 1% increase in base bank rates would hit these people very, very hard and any growth in the economy will disappear faster than an ice cube in a tea pot.
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| Quote ="Dally"Talking of delusional dream worlds - do you really think Jeremy, of the Metropolitan Elite, will be reading your message to him on a rugby league fans website? Do you think he knows or cares what rugby league is?'"
Well, if we're going to talk about pointless posting on a rugby league website I guess I have to bow to your expert opinion.
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| Quote ="wrencat1873"Just taking up on your low interest rates, which, of course are beneficial to anyone borrowing money.
IF inflation continues to rise, which it has slowly begun to do (largely on the back of currency inflation) and still has some way to go, what happens to the millions of people and businesses that have borrowed using "cheap money".
A 0.5 or 1% increase in base bank rates would hit these people very, very hard and any growth in the economy will disappear faster than an ice cube in a tea pot.'"
£ is now at c1.20 euro that what it was a two years ago and better than it was three years ago so it could be inflation will fall back especially if oil pricing stabilises.
Given that most banks aren't into giving business overdrafts not a lot, the borrowing will be in the form of loans at fixed interest rates so an increase in interest rates will not impact their existing exposure what it might do is make them consider future borrowing more carefully. You would hope most business will have made hay whilst the sun shines.
Interest rates on ID facilities and the likes are pretty competitive - lots of players out there - pretty secure lending as most debtors will pay up even if you go bust and they will only lend you 90% of the book less if they think matters are looking grim - low risk low rates.
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"£ is now at c1.20 euro that what it was a two years ago and better than it was three years ago so it could be inflation will fall back especially if oil pricing stabilises.
Given that most banks aren't into giving business overdrafts not a lot, the borrowing will be in the form of loans at fixed interest rates so an increase in interest rates will not impact their existing exposure what it might do is make them consider future borrowing more carefully. You would hope most business will have made hay whilst the sun shines.
Interest rates on ID facilities and the likes are pretty competitive - lots of players out there - pretty secure lending as most debtors will pay up even if you go bust and they will only lend you 90% of the book less if they think matters are looking grim - low risk low rates.'"
What about personal debt, which is at record levels ?
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| Quote ="wrencat1873"What about personal debt, which is at record levels ?'"
The Government don't apply for credit or force people to sign contracts.
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"Complete rubbish - low interest only reduce investment returns if you stick the money in the bank. Invested correctly in capital projects low interest rates give very interesting investment opportunities. As a business we can borrow any amount we want at 1.4% over base - guess what we have borrowed substantial sums and invested in a variety of projects which we would not otherwise have as low interest rates shorten ROI time frames considerably
Young people can buy property in a host of places - plenty of cheap property in Bradford, Wakefield, Halifax, Oldham, Rochdale etc. Yes they may not be able to buy in London or Cornwall but there are plenty of places young people can afford to live the fact they choose not to is a different matter'"
Let's look at the facts:
A solid, balanced portfolio aimed at generating a sustainable income would yield 3%, one aimed at capital growth perhaps 1.8%. These are pathetic yields in historic terms, especially with inflation running at 2.3% and expected to edge up to c.3% by the end of the year.
The growth in the UK economy has been fuelled by consumer-spending not investment by businesses. With inflation now matching wage growth and inflation projected to increase through the year that source of growth looks like disappearing (maybe why May has called an election, before it hits the fan?).
There is a lack of business investment on both the manufacturing and service sectors (at lowest levels since the 2008-2010 crash period). Weakness projected to continue due to Brexit concerns.
High household debt - unsecured lending at highest level since 2006 (pre-crash).
Only one thing is certain about debt - whether for "business growth" or otherwise - it has to be repaid and often when times are harder than when borrowed. Also with interest rates at all time lows, will growth cover an increase to say a 10% rate or even 5% base rate?
All cheap money does is create asset price bubbles - whether property, shares, or whatever as its easy to make a quick buck there (before the bubble bursts) than make meaningful business investment that creates real long-term wealth. In a nutshell that is the weakness of the current system, allied to over-paid, weak management in large companies. People who sit on cash piles or return funds to shareholders because they are incapable of investing in future growth opportunities.
You need to visit the opticians to have your rose-tinted specs adjusted.
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"I would say there are are millions of people who have a better standard of living than they did in 2008 - anyone who has had any kind of career development and there will be millions will be in a better position than they were in 2008.
'"
You may say millions are better off but this article from 6 months ago (which seems to be built on more than "I would say"icon_wink.gif suggests otherwise. It also addresses your GDP miracle. Please note than since that article was written real wages growth has declined (see my previous post).
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"£ is now at c1.20 euro that what it was a two years ago and better than it was three years ago so it could be inflation will fall back especially if oil pricing stabilises.
Given that most banks aren't into giving business overdrafts not a lot, the borrowing will be in the form of loans at fixed interest rates so an increase in interest rates will not impact their existing exposure what it might do is make them consider future borrowing more carefully. You would hope most business will have made hay whilst the sun shines.
Interest rates on ID facilities and the likes are pretty competitive - lots of players out there - pretty secure lending as most debtors will pay up even if you go bust and they will only lend you 90% of the book less if they think matters are looking grim - low risk low rates.'"
What has the £ / € ex rate to do with the inflation rate?
As to loans - usually expressed as a % above base or LIBOR and so rates do increase with interest rate rises. Even if genuinely fixed at some point they will need renegotiating when conditions and rates are likely to be significantly different.
Low rates and cheap money creating big debts are what caused the 2008 crash. There has been more of the same since and it is likely than the next downturn will be a depression rather than recession. Maybe that's why there is so much warmongering going on at present?
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"Corbyn would be a disaster as a PM - he would do what most Labour governments do tax heavily - and McDonald has already hinted at that anyone on >70k he considers rich and they will be taxed accordingly which must include himself!! - spend on the most inefficient sector i.e. the public sector. He will bring in a maximum earning level which will result in an exodus of talent. You will see the rise of union power once again. If he thinks he can take on the corporates and beat them he really is delusional.
Welcome to the world of theoretical Socialism!! It doesn't work it never has and it never will'"
The only reason why 70k doesn’t go far in this country is because everything is overpriced and the corporates need to be held accountable for ripping everyone off. When it is cheaper to get a flight into mainland Europe than it is to get a train from Leeds to London then something needs to change. Taxpayers would get much better value for money if the railways were nationalised and the heavier tax will be worth it because we will all get better services again.
Parts of the private sector can be just as inefficient as some of the public sector. The private sector does not have a monopoly on efficiency. In the space of a week my complaint recently went from a senior customer service manager to a national manager and a national team manager. How many managers does this private company need to deal with complaints?
The exodus of talent is already happening with many quitting vital jobs over here to get a fairer deal abroad. Brexit has been handled disastrously under the conservatives and more jobs are set to go if they’re re-elected and follow through with a hard Brexit.
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| Isn't Corbyn now making noises that he won't quit, even if Labour get smashed - at least long enough to change the rules again to make it harder for the Parliamentary party to dominate selections for leadership positions. If ever you wanted evidence that to Jeremy and his mates all that matters is control of the party and not winning an election, there it is.
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| If Corbyn gets out, meets people, gets on the megaphone and uses a massive social media he can will this election. He just needs one hook to engage people. With a Trump it was controversial comments that caused the tweeting idiots faux outrage. That gave him the oxygen of publicity to invigorate a leadership campaign that was going nowhere fast.
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| Quote ="Dally"What has the £ / € ex rate to do with the inflation rate?
As to loans - usually expressed as a % above base or LIBOR and so rates do increase with interest rate rises. Even if genuinely fixed at some point they will need renegotiating when conditions and rates are likely to be significantly different.
Low rates and cheap money creating big debts are what caused the 2008 crash. There has been more of the same since and it is likely than the next downturn will be a depression rather than recession. Maybe that's why there is so much warmongering going on at present?'"
Most loans are at an agreed rate for the term of the loan at its inception - otherwise how can you plan an investment if you don't actually know the cost of the funding? Overdrafts are obviously a different matter as is an ID facility which appears to have replaced a lot of overdrafts these days.
Given we import far more than we export I would the exchange rate of the £ wil have a huge impact on the rate of inflation - would you not agree?
What caused the crash was a sector of business that could not be allowed to go bust i.e. banking. Most commercial businesses would have simply gone out of business and there would not have been the need to bail them out. Banks knew they had a get out of jail card no matter how they behaved - which was appallingly and most of the directors should have been struck off IMO.
Personal debt is too high I would agree with you but there will be a balancing of this as its part of cycle. As soon as interest rates increase even by 1/2% demand for new borrowing will decrease it is just a question of time
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"What caused the crash was a sector of business that could not be allowed to go bust i.e. banking. Most commercial businesses would have simply gone out of business and there would not have been the need to bail them out. Banks knew they had a get out of jail card no matter how they behaved - which was appallingly and most of the directors should have been struck off IMO.'"
When the bubble burst in 2008 there should have been an example made and it should have been 'day zero'. Instead the bubble was patched up and re-inflated to carry on with this ponzi scheme circus of an economy.
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"
Given we import far more than we export I would the exchange rate of the £ wil have a huge impact on the rate of inflation - would you not agree?'"
You mentioned specifically the Euro rate rather than, say, the dollar rate. The stuff we buy from Europe can be substituted e.g. German cars for British made ones, fancy food and wines from other places, etc. So no specific need to impact on inflation, other than via business supply chains, which again could generally be substituted over time.
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| Quote ="Dally"You mentioned specifically the Euro rate rather than, say, the dollar rate. The stuff we buy from Europe can be substituted e.g. German cars for British made ones, fancy food and wines from other places, etc. So no specific need to impact on inflation, other than via business supply chains, which again could generally be substituted over time.'"
Have you not seen the value of the £ against the $.
1.43 last Jan to 1.24 today, a 17/18% drop ??
Although suppliers can close their eyes in the short term, these changes have a direct effect on the cost of goods that we all buy on the high street.
On the flip side, a weak currency certainly helps exports.
If only we had a strong manufacturing sector in the UK.................
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| I'll be voting Labour 100%
The Tories "hammer the young/poor/low paid/disabled + tax breaks for the rich" policies don't sit well with me at all.
Where as Corbyn has his faults, but he's a man of principle who is struggling to adapt to the phoney world of front bench politics. The policies are pretty good and I feel investment in the North is much better safeguarded by a Labour Government.
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| How could you vote for anything other than 100%? Put a single line instead of a cross in the box?
When you say Corbyn is a man of principle, shouldn't that translate to accepting that his MPs can and should vote against him on the basis of conscience? That's the flag he hid behind when doing so umpteen times. I'd also argue that if he was genuinely principled, his aim should be to get his party into power. If he can't he should quit and let someone else have a go. Otherwise he's actually letting down all Labour supporters, except for the mindless few who think running the Labour party is more important than running the country.
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