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| Quote ="Carneys Pint"It's easy enough to narrow it down to a few serious contenders.
Rule out the following:
Horses who have fallen or unseated this season
Horses aged 6 or those aged 12 and over
Those who have completed in previous Nationals
Positives: Form over the National fences.'"
That's the fundamental for mine. I don't think any amount of training can prepare a horse for those fences. |
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Racecards are out, although some of these are not final deceleration.
horses.sportinglife.com/aintree2008/racecards
Some very interesting entries, Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander are both entered for the Melling and the Bowl, cant see either of them beating Denman in the Bowl, so may take on Voy Pur in the Melling who would have improved from it's Festival run.
Big Bucks should run away with the hurdle on Thursday and i can see Lough Derg pulling out of that and is entered in 3 other races anyway.
Wichita Lineman should run away with the novice chase on Wednesday and the Melling should be a competitive race, Weapon's Amnesty ran well at the festival and is entered in the Sefton Novice Hurdle.
Tatenan should run in the Maghull Novice chase on Saturday and i think Celestial Halo can go 1 better in the Aintree Hurdle and then near enough anything can win the National.
All in all some great racing on the way people, many horses entered in lots of races still so i wont be betting until the morning of the race.
Don't forget to post your tips and good luck all. |
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Racecards are out, although some of these are not final deceleration.
horses.sportinglife.com/aintree2008/racecards
Some very interesting entries, Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander are both entered for the Melling and the Bowl, cant see either of them beating Denman in the Bowl, so may take on Voy Pur in the Melling who would have improved from it's Festival run.
Big Bucks should run away with the hurdle on Thursday and i can see Lough Derg pulling out of that and is entered in 3 other races anyway.
Wichita Lineman should run away with the novice chase on Wednesday and the Melling should be a competitive race, Weapon's Amnesty ran well at the festival and is entered in the Sefton Novice Hurdle.
Tatenan should run in the Maghull Novice chase on Saturday and i think Celestial Halo can go 1 better in the Aintree Hurdle and then near enough anything can win the National.
All in all some great racing on the way people, many horses entered in lots of races still so i wont be betting until the morning of the race.
Don't forget to post your tips and good luck all. | |
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| Quote ="worthing wire"Eh?'"
You need form over the big fences but not in the National ie. Becher Chase, Topham and to a lesser extent the Grand Sefton and Foxhunters. |
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| Quote ="worthing wire"Yes, I gather all that. I just think that ruling out horses who have previously completed slightly contradicts the form over the fences bit.
Amberleigh House was placed the year before it won;
Hedgehunter fell at the last one year, won it the next and was 2nd the next;
West Tip placed three times after winning it;
Monty's Pass was placed the year after it won;
Party Politics placed subsequent to winning
I could probably go on. But won't
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Apologies - it's more horses who've previously placed/completed without winning to rule out
Will post a couple of my strong fancies tommorow. Nothing at a monster price but value non the less. |
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| Quote ="Carneys Pint"Apologies - it's more horses who've previously placed/completed without winning to rule out
Will post a couple of my strong fancies tommorow. Nothing at a monster price but value non the less.'"
That figures - was on this creature called Brave Highlander for years in the hope it would eventually come good. Usually got round, but 1 4th place was the best it ever did for me  |
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He ran well a good few times - was unlucky to come down at the Canal Turn one year, Phillip Hide used to ride him a fair bit and he was always plotted up for the National.
Every year the trainer would say the same thing "the big aim is the National" etc. same for Clan Royal too.
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| Quote ="Latchford Wolvesfan"
Some very interesting entries, Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander are both entered for the Melling and the Bowl, cant see either of them beating Denman in the Bowl, so may take on Voy Pur in the Melling who would have improved from it's Festival run.
'"
Depends if Sir Robert Ogden wants Exotic Dancer running against Voy Por. |
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| Quote ="Carneys Pint"It's easy enough to narrow it down to a few serious contenders.
Rule out the following:
Horses who have fallen or unseated this season
Horses aged 6 or those aged 12 and over
Those who have completed in previous Nationals
Positives: Form over the National fences.'"
What about those that have won it more than once or been placed more than once  |
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This is the one and only Horse race I bet on and have gone for the following...
£10 Black Apalachi to win @ 16/1
£2 Stan each way @ 100/1
£5 Can't buy time each way @ 50/1
Have picked 2 winners in the past - West Tip and Red Marauder
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If they've won it more than once it constitutes a win so they are in. However if they've placed more than once without winning they're out.
To clear it up:
If your horse has completed the National before it should be in 1st place.
If it has run in the National it has to have PU, BD, UR, F etc. the moment it finishes and doesn't win it's off the list.
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| Quote ="Carneys Pint"If they've won it more than once it constitutes a win so they are in. However if they've placed more than once without winning they're out.
To clear it up:
If your horse has completed the National before it should be in 1st place.
If it has run in the National it has to have PU, BD, UR, F etc. the moment it finishes and doesn't win it's off the list.'"
You clearly know a lot more about horse racing that me.
PU, BD, UR, F etc
I don't have the faintest idea what you're on about  |
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Pulled up
Brought down
Unseated rider
Fell
Etc...
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| Quote ="Carneys Pint"If they've won it more than once it constitutes a win so they are in. However if they've placed more than once without winning they're out.
To clear it up:
If your horse has completed the National before it should be in 1st place.
If it has run in the National it has to have PU, BD, UR, F etc. the moment it finishes and doesn't win it's off the list.'"
I kind of see your point here now - I'm guessing it's to do with weights subsequently allocated.
Do you reckon Hedgehunter fell on purpose in 2004? |
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| He was weighed down by a hefty sum of CP money from 66's down to 25's which was IMO the main problem. He wouldn't have won if he'd stood up anyway as they made too much use of him that year, the following year however he could have gone round again 
I might be to do with subsequent weight - it's just a stat that they have a poor record, tbh horses who've previously won and not won the National have a poor win record in general but Hedgehunter won the year after falling and there've been a few other good runs.
Equally there's a good few poor runs after placing, most notably Lord Atterbury who was came down at the first one year having finished third the year before. |
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Anyone any idea rough SP for Big Bucks tomorrow? Looking on SkyBet and no prices yet,just an option for SP
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| Quote ="cumbriansaint"Anyone any idea rough SP for Big Bucks tomorrow? Looking on SkyBet and no prices yet,just an option for SP'"
5/6 on PP at the moment |
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Any idea how much a £10 double win on that and Denman would fetch in?
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| Quote ="cumbriansaint"Any idea how much a £10 double win on that and Denman would fetch in?'"
Taking Big Bucks at 5/6 and Denman at 10/11 (current prices at PP)
£10 pays £35 |
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Cheers mate. Put it on on SkyBet but had to take the SPs
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| Quote ="cumbriansaint"Any idea how much a £10 double win on that and Denman would fetch in?'"
£35 if you take the 10/11 Denman and that 5/6 about BB
They're top price about both of those and Big Bucks is an arb at the price so it won't be there much longer. |
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| Quote ="Carneys Pint"£35 if you take the 10/11 Denman and that 5/6 about BB
They're top price about both of those and Big Bucks is an arb at the price so it won't be there much longer.'"
Sorry if this comes over as pedantic, but surely Big Bucks cannot be referred to as an arb at odds of 5/6. For an arb to occur the punter must have the ability to make a profit regardless of outcome by backing two or more possibilities;
e.g. In a tennis match with only two possible outcomes, one bookmaker has player A odds on (4/6) and player B odds against (11/10) whilst another bookmaker has player A odds against (5/4) and player B odds on (4/7). By backing each player at odds against the punter is guaranteed a profit albeit a small one.
Big stakes players search for opportunities like this but they are few and far between as bookmakers view each others prices and will rarely provide punters such opportunities for too long - but they do occur from time to time. |
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| no horse will EVER beat my winning record in the 1990 GRAND NATIONAL |
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My Tips For Thursday ...
2:00 John Smith's Liverpool Hurdle
Big Buck's
2:35 Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O Novices' Hurdle
Walkon
3:10 totesport Bowl Chase
Denman
3:45 John Smith's Fox Hunters' Chase
Take The Stand
4:20 John Smith's Red Rum Handicap Chase
Pasco
4:55 John Smith's Manifesto Novices' Chase
Planet Of Sound
5:30 Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle
Sunnyhill Boy
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Today at Aintree ...
2.00 Big Bucks
2.35 Starluck
3.10 Star de Mohaison (e/w)
3.45 Sonevafushi (e/w)
4.20 Tramantano (e/w)
4.55 Chapoturgeon
5.30 Font (e/w)
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| Quote ="WANDERER"Sorry if this comes over as pedantic, but surely Big Bucks cannot be referred to as an arb at odds of 5/6. For an arb to occur the punter must have the ability to make a profit regardless of outcome by backing two or more possibilities;
e.g. In a tennis match with only two possible outcomes, one bookmaker has player A odds on (4/6) and player B odds against (11/10) whilst another bookmaker has player A odds against (5/4) and player B odds on (4/7). By backing each player at odds against the punter is guaranteed a profit albeit a small one.
Big stakes players search for opportunities like this but they are few and far between as bookmakers view each others prices and will rarely provide punters such opportunities for too long - but they do occur from time to time.'"
There are more arbs on horse racing than any other sport. The price to lay on Betfair was 1.83 and it's 5/6 or 1.85 with the bookmakers, you could back him with Paddy Power and lay him on Betfair for guaranteed profit.
In this intance he'd be backing Big Bucks to win and Big Bucks to lose with no risk at all to himself.
Betfair is the best guide for horse prices - some firms will lay arbs, Paddy Power often take a view on a race and will stand it for X amount.
As long as the price is under to lay on Betfair then the arb players will come and back it with X firm and lay it with Betfair. As one odds compiler put it "I couldn't think of anything more tedious than arbing" - most arbers will do it in £5 to £40 stakes so you need a heck of a lot of arbs to make it pay. |
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