I bet it won't be forgotten about, the debate will rumble on.

I can see this season being one where at the start of April we are 1-6 and at the bottom of the league and seen as a club in crisis, the board stick with Smith and then we start to pick up some wins.

We steadily pull ourselves in to the top 8, but after the split are too far adrift to make a credible play for the top 4 and play out the final weeks of the season in apathy.

There will be a lot of anger on this forum and people saying they have had enough, want to give up with Wire until we get a new coach etc etc.

That's scenario A.

Scenario B is that when we are 1-6 the club parts company with Tony Smith, thanks him with fulsome tributes for what he has done, and appoints Richard Agar for the rest of the season. The club then struggles along and either just sneaks in to the 8, or just slips in to the bottom 4 but enjoys some good wins over the lower league sides and secures our SL future fairly easily, and at that point Agar is confirmed as our head coach on a two year contract till 2019.

In that case, there won't be all the debate about coaches on here, as the future will be decided. There may be a lack of general optimism though!

Or scenario C, we pick up a couple, or three wins, get some players back, build a bit of momentum and be close enough to make a creditable assault on a top four place during the top 8 play offs?

I agree with uncle Rico . If we win Thursday , which is a big if but we won't face an easier Wigan side, then we can hopefully build momentum. We have three keys players missing in hill ratchford and Currie. It's only three games in, players due to back soon . We hopefully do a Wigan last year and be there or there abouts and peak near the end of the season when it matters. BUT we have to pick two points up first on Thursday

Scenario B. Is Agar as involved as he was only I've not spotted him on the cameras.

I think the people at the top had their fingers burnt from putting a no2 in charge in the past. I would be amazed if it happens again.

Although if Smith resigned tomorrow to go and coach Saints, im not sure who the club would turn to. Probably an interim until the end of the season.

The whole culture would need changing though.. a clean start for everyone.

Would they not use Lee Briers? Do you think In time Lee would be our manager?

It would be very difficult to get top 4 if we lose 6 of our first 7, and given that we have Wigan, Saints away and Hull in our next four games I think its a likely outcome in the form we are in.

A turn around is not impossible. Last season Hull lost three in a row in February/March and there was pressure on Radford but they went on a great winning run after that. But we would really need a Hull style turnaround as to make top 4 you probably can't afford to lose more than 9 or 10 in the whole season.

The irony is that had this current Super 8s and top 4 format been around back in 2011 we wouldn't have had to deal with Leeds in the playoffs...

The key word is scenario and in mine I had us winning a game or two more from the first seven...fingers crossed

Didn't Saints lose 6 games one year at the start of the season to get rid of Royce Simmons ,then as soon as KC got the job they won nearly every game ? I'm sure they got to Old Trafford too, possibly the Ben Flower final.

In the good old days before the fans turned on him.I believe most of them think there are too many old Saints players on the backroom staff.

Since we seem to have entered the world of scenarios, what set of circumstances would realistically precipitate the sacking of TS ?

Scenario 1
I guess if we had a year when we dropped into the middle 8's, then we would certainly see a drop off in attendance at the HJ and I think that might send the traffic lights to amber as far as Simon Moran is concerned. Fans would certainly grumble, ST holders would fall and we would likely see some player departures and perhaps a big name or two recruited. But just like Leeds last year, I don't think TS would get the sack or that we would see fans on the street burning effigies. Sport is fickle, sides have good and bad patches, runs of injuries, plus Lady Luck also plays her part. There would be disquiet because we thought it was our year, but hope springs eternal and we have been here before.

Scenario 2
If we had two bad years and another visit to the middle 8 naughty step, then yes, I think that could well be a breaking point. In fact it will be interesting to see what happens at Leeds this year, although knowing Uncle Gary the need to make a severance payment is likely to be just a major stumbling point. At that point attendances at the HJ will have plummeted and SM will have had time to look at alternative options. The point about who would replace TS is a good one. Marry in haste, repent at leisure, and I don't see a queue of good alternatives to Smith at the moment. If you were an Aussie coach would you really wish to come over here to immerse yourself in a low quality game that was slowly dying on its feet along a narrow strip of motorway ? Perhaps there is someone who likes missionary work and we should not be so cynical.

Scenario 3
We don't win the GF, but we oscillate around in the top four group of clubs, occasionally winning a CC and the LLS. Attendances are likely to remain relatively stable, fans will grumble but accept the status quo whilst still hoping for an elusive GF win. Does anybody really believe that fans would demand change ? When I look at the Wire booking system on line I can see that there are more reserved seats this year than last - our ST holders seem to have increased, presumably because of our two finals last year. My take is that fans in general are happy to accept this situation whilst still hoping for the big prize. Personally, under this scenario, I think the quality of play on offer is far more of a threat to attendances than not winning the GF.

I suppose I can sum all that up by saying I don't think there any chance of TS being kicked out this year because he didn't win the GF.

I'm not sure he should be sacked... more 'replaced' at the end of the season. He has had a long time and things just feel like they have gone stale. For me, we are under performing in all areas.

Recruitment - For me its been very poor, even lazy. We have seen big money spent on poor quality/heartless players (Lineham, Asotasi, Sandow.. even sims) . We have also given deals to players that left everyone baffled and alot of people laughing. All of them came to fruition. Wheeler, Bailey (he even had to have a meeting with the players to explain this one), Blythe (coming soon).. Then when he does bring someone back who plays well (Penny) he never plays him, even though he had seemed to be doing really well.... Our good signings seem to be few and far between... and they are hardly great bits of recruitment.... What i mean by that is anyone can go and throw lost of money at the MOS. Its hardly a great find (im not knocking us going out and getting the best, i think we should be). Also the way some of our senior players have left the club has left a sour taste...... Look at how much money we have spent/players we have brought in, then look at our backline. You can make a case for needing replacements in every single position.

Rugby on offer has been poor to watch.... yea last season we scooted our way to 2 finals, which we lost.. But the rugby on offer was really bad to watch. It has been for 2/3 season now. The cavalier, swashbucking side of 2011 has been replaced with a flat, scooting side who looking devoid of creativity when it matters. Its not nice to watch and its not a winning style. Wigan arent good to watch either, but they get the job done.

Big game mentality - well as we haven't won a final for 5 years now, it has to be in question. Our biggest highlight since Briers retired, appears to be winning a friendly game against Brisbane. You cant keep blaming it on bad luck forever.

infact if you flip it round and say 'what areas is Tony Smith excelling in?' You would be hard pushed to find any really since 2012. Yes Rugby League on the whole is on the slide a bit. But i do feel we are behind the curve when it comes to the playing side.

He has done alot for this club, so i dont want to see him go out on a bad note. But i just dont get all this sentimentality around him. He was the right man at the right time. But now i dont think he is.... EVERYTHING is in place behind the scenes for this club to be the very best. Training facilities, spending power, academy, clubs business model... all absolute top notch.

It's a shame we didn't win one of those GF's, as im pretty sure Smith would have left on a high as it would have been 'job done'. But we didnt, and it isn't.

Fair point, but who could replace Smith at the present time? I don't just mean in terms of winning the GF, I'm thinking more of regular finals, top 4 etc.

I'm concerned that if Smith goes we go from being not quite good enough for the GF win, to not good enough for the top 4. I'm struggling to think of ANYONE, including Daryl Powell, who could pretty much guarantee us top 4 let alone a trophy or the elusive GF.

I'm pretty much with this. The idea from the previous poster that we can carry on with 2017 and 2018 as failure is not going to be acceptable to even the most die hard Smith fan.

I genuinely hope he turns it round and delivers a GF win. Just the signs are not very promising at the moment.

Top 4 is not guaranteed with Smith neither historically or for 2017 unless we have a drastic turnaround.

Non one guarantee's top 4. And the question 'who replaces smith' isnt one really people on a message board need to have the answer for.. There are people paid very well to find and recruit players and coaches.

I'm not concerned one little bit that if Smith goes we wont be good enough for the top 4... The club is well run and is a very attractive proposition for someone to coach.

Tony Smith isnt this magical man that sweeps everything before him is he? Far from it these last 4 seasons.

I think the difficulty you have is that your view is not necessarily the same as the majority of Wire supporters. By your criteria, 2016 was a failure was it not. And yet despite the defeat at Catalans, and our 2016 season, the attendance for the Cas match was pretty good - above the average for last year. Even a friendly against Brisbane saw 12k fans.

Was last year an acceptable one to lose the GF ? and is 2017 the one where everything hangs on a win ?

I am reassured that I am hardly a lone voice which thinks we are playing poorly, recruited poorly and that things are not looking very rosy at the moment and we cannot go one like that indefinitely. Others don't share that view. Fine. If they enjoy watching the Wire currently good on them, they think Smith is the man and has just been unlucky for 8 years then that's fine too. I suspect the length of this thread suggests it's quite a division of opinions.

What we can say is this- the target for 2016 was to win the GF and we didn't. That must mean we failed in that target. How long we continue to give Smith to win a GF? This season represents the 8th realistic opportunity he has had. Wasn't it Paul Cullen who said "if you always do what you always did...".

Not sure what attendance have to do with on-field success.

I think playing entertaining rugby is a big attraction for getting bums on seats & that could be why sky are showing so many of our games to show the game in a good light. Unfortunately, we need to start firing on all cylinders & get exciting & expansive again.

I think fans can stomach failure IF the margins are fine, the effort is going in, and they are being entertained along the way. So 2016 wasn't a failure with those factors considered. We were very close to actually winning both finals, we won the LLS, we played some great rugby at times, which was very entertaining..and the players were obviously putting in a shift on a consistent basis.

2017 is shaping up to be very very different...you could argue its still too early to make this judgment. I guess if you have been watching the game for long enough you get a very good sense as to were we are at and were we are heading. My RL senses are telling me bad things.

You are not sure what attendances have to do with on-field success ? A team has a string of wins and attendances rise, a team sits at the bottom of the table and attendances fall ? Attendances are a reasonable proxy for fan satisfaction, not perfect, but good enough in the absence of survey. Yet our attendances for Cas and BB were good - despite failing completely with the GF target last year. Surely if our only target was missed yet again we should have seen a drop in ST holders and the HJ half empty ? After all, this was the 7th year we failed. Could it be possible that you are not actually speaking for the majority of fans when you say " its not acceptable to even the most diehard TS fans". I think you are being slightly disingenuous Nigel.

Do you honestly believe that your ' Smith must go if we don't win the GF in 2017' has any relevance whatsoever if the majority of fans disagree. Nobody knows what will happen this season and this thread is riding high on the current dissatisfaction with three poor SL performances, plus the worry it may soon be four. If we do a Leeds there will be even more voices for Smith out. If we start to win and get back to top four it will suddenly get quiet. If we win the CC, attendances will climb and he will be the Messiah.
But it will be SM that decides if he is going to fire TS, and rapidly falling attendances will be the trigger point. If you are so insistent that TS must go this year If we don't win the GF, perhaps you should stop watching your beloved Wire and help him to make his mind up.

As I have said before, I am not in love with TS. He has drawbacks (longer term planning, unrealistic about players abilities, some recruitment etc). But I do think he is one of the best coaches in the UK and I am not optimistic about recruitment from good old Oz. I also think he has brought success to the club, success which we have not seen for much of the long time I have been watching. If there is a better alternative fine, trouble is, who on here is going to pick out the manager that will win us the GF in say the next couple of years ? Everything goes very quiet at that point doesn't it.

Yep..still fearing the worst after that debacle.

Wires71 view is shared by me. I want him gone with immediate effect. This is (relatively) worse than anything ive witnessed in the last 40 years. Smith is poor, very poor.

What is puzzling me, is that that after the Brisbane game, myself and a lot of other fans were thinking that this season looked promising. That game, we were cohesive and free flowing, punishing in defence and had a game plan. Of course there were a few things to improve on, but it was early doors. So what has changed? This is the same coaching setup, the same group of players, but it feels a bit flat. How can we go from looking like genuine contenders to genuinely struggling in just 3 weeks? I do believe we'll find that flow again, but it needs to happen sooner rather than later. I'm willing to trust TS in finding a way to turn it around.

I think the difference in the Brisbane game was that we got on the front foot right from the start & took the game to Brisbane, blew them away, handled well & gave away few penalties...discipline i think they call it, but let's not be complacent ,we allowed Brisbane to score 3 tries highlighting that our defence was not perfect.Our other opponents this year have all played on the front foot & blown us away, in short we can't defend & can only be successful when we can blow teams away.What has happened to our famous sliding defence from a few seasons ago ? Why do we waste at least 4 tackles on every set with negative attack before we start to spread the ball,providing we can keep possession ? In parts tonight,for our 3 tries, we played some good rugby but it is no good doing that for just 3 or even 2 tackles per set. This is Rugby League & the successful teams are throwing the ball about at every opportunity.

Should have let Alex Murphy have 10 mins with them at half time.