12 months minimum of on/off lockdowns, similar to what we are entering apparently.

I would say it looks like very little sport until probably spring next year, and with that, probably the death of RL as we know it.

Also, on a more serious note, I'd say it's also going to lead to the biggest period of austerity and recession anybody will have ever known and will probably be responsible for far more death in the long term than this virus will cause.

Here is a good article from the BBC this morning. Essentially it raises the point that Dita has made by asking how many of the deaths from Coronavirus would have occurred in any case (in the older population). Its a short jump from there to saying the economic effects have to be balanced against these 'excess deaths'. That's a difficult moral dilemma. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

Here is a good article from the BBC this morning. Essentially it raises the point that Dita has made by asking how many of the deaths from Coronavirus would have occurred in any case (in the older population). Its a short jump from there to saying the economic effects have to be balanced against these 'excess deaths'. That's a difficult moral dilemma. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

Quote ="Winslade's Offload"Here is a good article from the BBC this morning. Essentially it raises the point that Dita has made by asking how many of the deaths from Coronavirus would have occurred in any case (in the older population). Its a short jump from there to saying the economic effects have to be balanced against these 'excess deaths'. That's a difficult moral dilemma. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654'" That contains the cases breakdown across the age groups, the big numbers in the 60+ groups . I keep my eye on this site, my money is on the fastest finisher, the Yanks. [urlhttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url

Quote ="Winslade's Offload"Here is a good article from the BBC this morning. Essentially it raises the point that Dita has made by asking how many of the deaths from Coronavirus would have occurred in any case (in the older population). Its a short jump from there to saying the economic effects have to be balanced against these 'excess deaths'. That's a difficult moral dilemma. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654'" That contains the cases breakdown across the age groups, the big numbers in the 60+ groups . I keep my eye on this site, my money is on the fastest finisher, the Yanks. [urlhttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url

The Government have tried to make it easy for the UK. They've tried their best to leave aspects of the economy able to function to minimise the inevitable disaster this will cause. But the people of the UK are just so arrogant and ignorant and lacking in intelligence and have blown that chance. Instead of staying at home unless essential to go out and being mature about it, people are just ignoring the advice. Everyone believes they won't get it or they will and they won't be affected. None of them are intelligent enough to comprehend the idea of them simply passing it to someone in a vulnerable position and them being the cause of that death.

I've driven through Warrington a couple of times recently and it looks no different to any day pre-crisis. What is wrong with people? Arrogantly cracking on, pubs staying open last night and packed, people delighting in their free time and spending it shopping as if nothing was happening? Gangs of kids flooding the pitches at Vida/Orford and hitting the parks like it's the summer holidays. If you are letting your kids knock about at the moment you're an idiot. Some social interaction is of course important. Let them go on a bike ride or kick a ball between each other on a field. But don't let them hang around in massive gangs taking selfies and sharing cigs. For a lot of people in Warrington it's going to take a member of their family or someone they care about dying for them to take any notice. But that's coming because of the behaviour of a lot of people in the country. This could have been minimised, but people aren't giving that a chance.

The Government now has no choice but to enforce a total lockdown. So instead of having a little freedom and being able to do important tasks when needed, the country will be forced into lockdown. And it's the fault of the people and their ignorance.

And one thing I've heard far too much of on social media today is 'We're going into lockdown soon, so we might as well enjoy it'. Will they enjoy seeing someone they love being put on a ventilator or worse being told that they're not even going to get a go on the ventilator and are going to be left to die instead? Time for people to wake up.

They will find a way to justify it: "people are going to die anyway....I'm not going to change my lifestyle because of it....people die of flu every year and nobody makes a big deal of it".

It's the "all about me" society we have today.

I think the vast, vast majority of people do get it, as usual the few will ruin the small amounts of freedom for the many. At least I'm not seeing as many bullish comments about it being the flu anymore. Hopefully we have now accepted that it's not the flu or an overreaction.

Looks as though the government has changed course again - less than a week from adopting the 'speed bumps' approach !

They are now looking to adopt the approach in eg China and S. Korea. They have managed to arrest their outbreaks and will stamp out any future ones by testing individuals, tracing their contacts and then isolation. That will allow them to re-introduce people with immunity to society and re-start the economy. The disease has not gone away of course, but if they can limit the outbreaks they will eventually have a vaccine to control it.

Short term that will not affect us. We still have to isolate otherwise the numbers will be too large for hospitals to cope. But if the government can get sufficient numbers of test kits we have the prospect of seeing more relaxed 'distancing' approaches mixed with extreme measures as they try to control isolated outbreaks. I think all of this is being pushed by the WHO, hence their advice "test, test, test".

Anyway, that's my reading of the situation.

The symptoms, as described by a lot of people who have experienced this virus, are flu-like though, which is why many people are saying that. And, like flu, it is highly contagious and can kill, which is why some behaviour is irresponsible.

Ultimately, like any virus, it is Darwinism at work. Unfortunately, in the vast majority of cases it will come down to people in their later years of life, people who sadly have health issues outside their control and those who have abused their bodies through smoking and a unhealthy diet, who will sadly be most at risk.

Perhaps, one positive from this, when it eventually ends (which will be a long time yet), is that when the various stats come out, then people might see the folly of their unhealthy lifestyles and how as a society we have totally neglected our health for the sake of a good time?

I think people are hiding behind the stats too much. Three 30 year old, healthy, NHS staff from one hospital all in serious condition on ventilators after contracting it. 50% of those in Italy receiving critical care are under 65, 17% are under 30. It's very serious and whilst healthy young people will have a better chance, it's no excuse to be trying to carry on as normal.

I'm not condoning carrying on as normal. I'm simply pointing out that if you choose to spend your lunch hour filling your face with doughnuts, then you are more likely to have major problems here, than the guy who spends his lunch hour having a brisk walk.

How is everyone on here doing? Anyone know anyone with the virus or symptoms? Seems odd that Warrington has such a low confirmed number when it's such a hub for jobs and transport. Maybe we're all very good at washing our hands?

All this isolation has made me cynical...

I reckon many people have it and don't even realise it. Also, many people have had it before it even kicked off and never realised it.

Do we really believe now that Wuhan managed to contain it for a couple of months, when it's managed to go global in about in a month?

Let's be honest, this virus has been global for months - many deaths, put down as your traditional flu deaths, will actually have been covid19.

The worst thing is, those who clamoured for a lockdown will claim it was the right thing to do whatever the eventual outcome... keep it below, say, 10000, they will say it worked, if it balloons to 30000+, they will say we never went early enough.

Ultimately, the result of this lockdown can't be judged until about 2050, after the mental health and austerity aftermath is fully seen - the deaths & society breakdown from that will be an interesting and, probably, a painful thing to witness.

It's a new virus and nobody has immunity so it grows rapidly, it wouldn't have been just circulating quietly and then decide to go large. If it had been global for months we would have seen the hospitals overloaded during the peak winter months when capacity was already stretched with seasonal flu and we'd have been hearing on the news about unusual numbers of cases of pneumonia. The reason it first got detected in Wuhan was because the hospitals suddenly became inundated with pneumonia cases and realised something was unusual. Doctors won't just scratch it off as "oh must be a bad case of flu this year", they are a bit more sophisticated than that... But you are right that many people have it / have had it and don't realise it. On the Diamond Princess cruise ship they tested everybody and found 17.9% tested positive and didn't subsequently develop symptoms. Another Chinese study of people tested in Shenzhen found about 20% of those with positive tests didn't develop symptoms. The tests could come up with false positives sometimes but it shows there is probably a chunk of people who get the virus and are unaffected, although they can still be contagious which is why they need lockdowns rather than just asking people with symptoms to isolate. A modelling study on case data from the outbreak in China has tried to estimate the fatality rate adjusting for the fact that there are a lot of cases which are not showing symptoms. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20031104v2 This is the key table from that study which someone has posted on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status ... 89/photo/1 The overall case fatality rate (adjusting for cases without symptoms) is 1.6% but there is a big difference by age. It's about 0.1% for people in their 20s, 0.2% for 30s, 0.4% for 40s, shoots up to nearly 10% for 70s and 18% for 80s.

It's a new virus and nobody has immunity so it grows rapidly, it wouldn't have been just circulating quietly and then decide to go large. If it had been global for months we would have seen the hospitals overloaded during the peak winter months when capacity was already stretched with seasonal flu and we'd have been hearing on the news about unusual numbers of cases of pneumonia. The reason it first got detected in Wuhan was because the hospitals suddenly became inundated with pneumonia cases and realised something was unusual. Doctors won't just scratch it off as "oh must be a bad case of flu this year", they are a bit more sophisticated than that... But you are right that many people have it / have had it and don't realise it. On the Diamond Princess cruise ship they tested everybody and found 17.9% tested positive and didn't subsequently develop symptoms. Another Chinese study of people tested in Shenzhen found about 20% of those with positive tests didn't develop symptoms. The tests could come up with false positives sometimes but it shows there is probably a chunk of people who get the virus and are unaffected, although they can still be contagious which is why they need lockdowns rather than just asking people with symptoms to isolate. A modelling study on case data from the outbreak in China has tried to estimate the fatality rate adjusting for the fact that there are a lot of cases which are not showing symptoms. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20031104v2 This is the key table from that study which someone has posted on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status ... 89/photo/1 The overall case fatality rate (adjusting for cases without symptoms) is 1.6% but there is a big difference by age. It's about 0.1% for people in their 20s, 0.2% for 30s, 0.4% for 40s, shoots up to nearly 10% for 70s and 18% for 80s.

Quote ="sally cinnamon"It's a new virus and nobody has immunity so it grows rapidly, it wouldn't have been just circulating quietly and then decide to go large. If it had been global for months we would have seen the hospitals overloaded during the peak winter months when capacity was already stretched with seasonal flu and we'd have been hearing on the news about unusual numbers of cases of pneumonia. The reason it first got detected in Wuhan was because the hospitals suddenly became inundated with =#0000FFpneumonia cases and realised something was unusual. Doctors won't just scratch it off as "oh must be a bad case of flu this year", they are a bit more sophisticated than that... But you are right that many people have it / have had it and don't realise it. On the Diamond Princess cruise ship they tested everybody and found 17.9% tested positive and didn't subsequently develop symptoms. Another Chinese study of people tested in Shenzhen found about 20% of those with positive tests didn't develop symptoms. The tests could come up with false positives sometimes but it shows there is probably a chunk of people who get the virus and are unaffected, although they can still be contagious which is why they need lockdowns rather than just asking people with symptoms to isolate. A modelling study on case data from the outbreak in China has tried to estimate the fatality rate adjusting for the fact that there are a lot of cases which are not showing symptoms. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20031104v2 This is the key table from that study which someone has posted on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status ... 89/photo/1 The overall case fatality rate (adjusting for cases without symptoms) is 1.6% but there is a big difference by age. It's about 0.1% for people in their 20s, 0.2% for 30s, 0.4% for 40s, shoots up to nearly 10% for 70s and 18% for 80s.'" This may be totally unrelated and just a coincidence, but I know of 5 people that had pneumonia just prior to, or just after Christmas. Thankfully, they all survived, but the one's I know really well are extremely worried about Covid19. This is unusual, as I cannot recall that number in my entire lifetime prior to this winter, which is very odd. There had been a large outbreak of a virus (again most likely unrelated) that I had in two waves during early to mid January. The medical staff I spoke to had seen a very large amount of people showing similar symptoms. This was something that attacked the throat/larynx/chest area, but didn't really affect my head in the way a cold/flu does. Just demonstrates how a lot of people can spread a virus in a short period of time, without realising it. I'm not in any way believing what I had was Covid19, and I'm taking the view that it's best to be safe rather than sorry. The number of pneumonia cases did make me wonder, as did the overwhelming amount of patients (not all with pneumonia I would add) that my family encountered in one particular hospital, waiting in corridors for a bed. They were more than maxed out with patients, and this was before Corvid19 had been discovered. The efforts of the NHS staff deserve our highest respect and gratitude under what were the usual circumstances, never mind what is going on at the present. Whether we believe its a just a bad type of flu, a virus or a 21st century plague doesn't really matter, as long as we look after ourselves, which directly helps everyone else, by doing the right thing and avoiding contact when we can. Keep smiling through.

Quote ="sally cinnamon"It's a new virus and nobody has immunity so it grows rapidly, it wouldn't have been just circulating quietly and then decide to go large. If it had been global for months we would have seen the hospitals overloaded during the peak winter months when capacity was already stretched with seasonal flu and we'd have been hearing on the news about unusual numbers of cases of pneumonia. The reason it first got detected in Wuhan was because the hospitals suddenly became inundated with =#0000FFpneumonia cases and realised something was unusual. Doctors won't just scratch it off as "oh must be a bad case of flu this year", they are a bit more sophisticated than that... But you are right that many people have it / have had it and don't realise it. On the Diamond Princess cruise ship they tested everybody and found 17.9% tested positive and didn't subsequently develop symptoms. Another Chinese study of people tested in Shenzhen found about 20% of those with positive tests didn't develop symptoms. The tests could come up with false positives sometimes but it shows there is probably a chunk of people who get the virus and are unaffected, although they can still be contagious which is why they need lockdowns rather than just asking people with symptoms to isolate. A modelling study on case data from the outbreak in China has tried to estimate the fatality rate adjusting for the fact that there are a lot of cases which are not showing symptoms. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20031104v2 This is the key table from that study which someone has posted on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status ... 89/photo/1 The overall case fatality rate (adjusting for cases without symptoms) is 1.6% but there is a big difference by age. It's about 0.1% for people in their 20s, 0.2% for 30s, 0.4% for 40s, shoots up to nearly 10% for 70s and 18% for 80s.'" This may be totally unrelated and just a coincidence, but I know of 5 people that had pneumonia just prior to, or just after Christmas. Thankfully, they all survived, but the one's I know really well are extremely worried about Covid19. This is unusual, as I cannot recall that number in my entire lifetime prior to this winter, which is very odd. There had been a large outbreak of a virus (again most likely unrelated) that I had in two waves during early to mid January. The medical staff I spoke to had seen a very large amount of people showing similar symptoms. This was something that attacked the throat/larynx/chest area, but didn't really affect my head in the way a cold/flu does. Just demonstrates how a lot of people can spread a virus in a short period of time, without realising it. I'm not in any way believing what I had was Covid19, and I'm taking the view that it's best to be safe rather than sorry. The number of pneumonia cases did make me wonder, as did the overwhelming amount of patients (not all with pneumonia I would add) that my family encountered in one particular hospital, waiting in corridors for a bed. They were more than maxed out with patients, and this was before Corvid19 had been discovered. The efforts of the NHS staff deserve our highest respect and gratitude under what were the usual circumstances, never mind what is going on at the present. Whether we believe its a just a bad type of flu, a virus or a 21st century plague doesn't really matter, as long as we look after ourselves, which directly helps everyone else, by doing the right thing and avoiding contact when we can. Keep smiling through.

The quickest way to deal with this is to test everyone. Tell the people who've got it to quarantine themselves and stay away from people who haven't. Let the ones with it get better and then 'release' them so too speak.

As it is they're aiming for 25,000 tests per day. Based on a population of 60 million it'll take them over 6 and a half years to test everyone.

My dad in January had a really bad case of 'flu'. He's fit and healthy and never goes the doctors but he had a headache, aching all over, high temperature and a sore throat and was so bad that he did go the doctors and they told him he had a 'viral infection'. It lasted just under two weeks. I'm certain he's had it. I think it's been around over here much earlier than reported.

! was bad for about 9 weeks over Christmas & to the end of Feb. Started as a sniffly cold which eased off after a week then went straight on my chest & throat which i put down to a heavy cold. Eased off end of January then came back again a week later ,chest/throat & i'm still full of catarrh. Even my wife had a bad chest for about 3 weeks, which is something she never gets even after being a smoker for 50 years , & pains in her head & face.

A lot of people with similar stories (including myself). Probably all passed off as varying degrees of winter flu.

Sally, you say this couldn't be covid19, but how do you explain Wuhan supposedly containing it for over 2 months (much of it without any restrictions in place) and then, once the Chinese go public with it, it suddenly goes around the globe in about a fortnight?.... Do people from Wuhan not travel anywhere or, more likely, was it being spread globally from as early as November?

Seeing how this spreads, anyone believing China kept this contained for over 2 months needs their heads examining.

1. When you get a viral infection it also provides a back door for bacteria, so its a common progression to subsequently get bacterial pneumonia.

2. The symptoms of Covid 19 and seasonal flu can be similar. Certainly both give a high temperature. Covid 19 produces a persistent cough (75% cases), then both viruses can result in pneumonia.

3. I think the earliest date for Coronavirus in the UK was around January 30th. BUT that would have been someone who was both presenting with the symptoms and who tested positive for Coronavirus. What we know now is that there are people who get infected but don't exhibit symptoms (asymptomatic, possibly 20%) and people who get very mild symptoms (headaches, sore throat) who think they dont have coronavirus. Hence the earliest date for the virus in the UK could have been sooner than January.

4. Testing is an issue. The government have been very slow to get PPE to the hospitals but testing has been equally bad.

a) The current test extracts the virus RNA, then amplifies it to get more 'sample', then checks the genetic code is the same as for Coronavirus. This is called the' PCR test' and is now only available in hospitals. I don't know where the government is getting its figure of 'confirmed infected' but certainly it is way, way too low because the number of deaths should be approximately 1% of total infected.


b) A new test being evaluated looks at our own antibodies to see if we have already had the infection. If you think about it, this is really important because if the number of asymptomatic plus very mild symptoms (30-40% ??) are now immune from the disease they can safely return to work (critical for NHS staff and other essential services). Everybody will of course will wan't to know where they stand as well. Unfortunately, if I remember correctly, the number of antibodies we generate against any virus will tail off when the infection has been controlled. After ?? 30 days the antibody level may be too low to measure and produce a negative result. So we need them to roll out this test and distribute very large numbers of the kits asap.

I know one thing + that is this dreadful virus is giving people paranoia + that includes me.I’ve had a bad chest + a little shortness of breath for least 3 weeks + it’s still lingering about + it’s def affecting my mental health + anxiety as I cannot see my partner who had a kidney transplant for another 3 months possibly longer + probably won’t get to see our dying dog either as he won’t last much longer due to heart disease.God is it wrong of me to hate China so much?

Sadly, you're likely to be the tiniest drop in the ocean when it comes to mental health issues after this is done.

This lockdown policy will, in years to come, be seen as the moment that the lemmings did truly throw themselves off the cliff.

If ever there was a moment when the public made themselves subservient to the state, then this will be seen as it.

Good luck to having the money to leave this island when all this is over... your travel insurance will make sure that the only people going abroad will be the rich - it's back to 2 weeks in Rhyl for the majority.

If this means I have to purchase a holiday home in the uk then its all good for meicon_smile.gif

Didn't the Isle of Man close it borders as soon as it found one person with corona virus . Apparently, this number has gone up to five. I would think the IoM would be the ideal situation to find out how this bug is spread . It can't be travelling around the world exclusively by personal contact, surely to goodness.

You'll get through this RM, and you and your partner will have one amazing reunion.
Our family is under house arrest as well, but not quite under such difficult circumstances, so I can empathise to a degree.
Wishing you all the very best!