Wrote this on a thread on the VT in reply to who people think would finish 4th at the end of the season after once again reading someone write that they think finishing 5th is better than 4th just because it's happened once. It has a little list/stats table at the end and i know we all love a good list



..........

I'd say Saints for 4th, Leeds have to win 6 of 7 i think and tough away games against Catalans, Hudds and Hull KR (where we haven't travelled too well to recently). A lot depends of next weekends CC semi's, if Leeds and/or Hudds get through to the final you can count them out of 4th spot because i think getting to Wembley will cost you at least 1 extra defeat in the league. Saints can and have been able to focus solely on the league since the quarter finals exit.

I do laugh at how many people now think that 5th is the spot to be in the league simply because Leeds did it last year. 12 months ago people said you couldn't win it unless you finish top 4, now it seems that finishing 3rd or 4th is the impossible goal, strange considering Saints came within a whisker of doing it from 3rd and before anybody is daft enough to say their is a difference between 3rd or 4th please don't. If the Top 8 Playoffs have proved anything its shown how tough it is to go from the high of winning the CC Final and getting yourself up for another charge within a few weeks. For me Wigan were actually the best team last year but missed out on top spot by 1 point, had Wire won the CC Quarter Final meeting between the two at HJ then i think Wigan would of profitted in the league.

Until a team other than Leeds, Saints or Wigan win a Grand Final from outside the top 4 then i'll believe finishing 5th-8th has advantages over 3rd and 4th. I pick those 3 teams as those clubs (along with Bradford around a decade ago) are the best playoffs teams. If you exclude defeats against Wigan/Saints/Bradford then in the whole history of the Playoffs Leeds have only lost to other opposition twice, Wire '06 and Cas '99. Wigan only once, Cas again in '99. Not 100% sure about Saints, could only go back to 2004 but they hadn't lost to any other team apart from a Leeds/Wigan/Bradford and given they won the GF in '99 '00 and '02 they can't be many if any at all.
Until some of these other teams change them numbers then no other team is going to win from 5th or lower because they don't have the Playoff experience or approach right yet, they could win from top 4 like Wire and Catalans battling for 2nd place currently but if either dropped as low as 5th then they wouldn't.

Records since 2007, the year after Hull managed to get to Old Trafford (without having beat Leeds, Wigan or Saints on the way)

.............. Overall ...... vs Saints/Wigan/Leeds ........ vs Other teams
LEEDS ........ 12-3 ................ 7-3 ....................... 5-[u0[/u
WIGAN ........ 10-6 ............... 2-6 ...................... 8-[u0[/u
SAINTS ......... 8-5 ............... 5-5 ....................... 3-[u0[/u
...................................................................16-[u0[/u

Personally I want the team to finish as high up as possible. I think difference between the three teams you mention plus Wire is that they all go into the season wanting to win the Grand Final. The rest all say their aim to make the top eight or the top four. Hudds maybe aim to get to the final. Come the play offs most of them have therefore achieved their aims for the season. Whilst they don't want to exactly lose the play off games they have tended either to fail to go up that additional level or don't have the ability to do so.

The OP on that thread made a case that 4th was worse than 5th, citing Leeds in 2010 and 2011. I disagree. We went to Pieland in the first round after running 4th in 2010 and won. Which then put us in exactly the same place as we had been for so many of the previous years - requiring to win a play off semi at home the week before the final. That we lost the latter was partly due to the lack of McGuire and Peacock but, regardless, it was probably infinitely preferable to going to Wire as we had to do in 2011.

Either way, teams with winning mentalities and the ability to raise their games to a play off standard should have little fear of whatever system is in play; indeed they should relish the challenge. Angling to get an "easier" draw in the early rounds is a loser mentality that deserves to meet the failure it so often has.

I believe it's in Leeds best interests to secure an easy home draw against whipping boy SL rabble in Week 1 of the playoffs.

right on que.

clockwork.

if only things like the weather were as easy to predict as Jeff .

To get to GF you have to play 1 easy game 1 tough game and 1 very difficult game if you finish 5th!!
To get to GF you have to play 2 very difficult games if you finish 4th!!

Which is the easier path?

I know which one i would want!!

The one where you can lose one of the difficult games and still get through?

No

I'm glad this Leeds team doesn't have this triangulating, loser, "what's the easiest way to do this" mentality when it comes to the play offs.

People seem to forget this part for some reason.

I know. It's very odd.

Let's say we come 5th, with Saints 4th. *If* we win our first round tie then, in the likeliest scenario, our next game, earlier designated "tough", is knockout against Saints AWAY.

Now let's say we come 4th, with Saints 5th. Best possible scenario, we beat Wigan/Wire and are one home tie away from the Grand Final. Worst case scenario, we lose the first game and our next game, earlier designated "very difficult", is knockout against Saints AT HOME.

So coming 5th, best case we play week 2 Saints away.

And coming 4th, worst case we play week 2 Saints at home.

How can you work out that finishing 5th is easier than finishing 4th?

It was just the way it fell for leeds last year.

In reality it depends on the form of the side you play in the playoffs.

Last year we played Hudds which were a team in decline when we were on the up. If we played saints this year given the run in they would probably be in good form. However if we were to play Catalan or Wire for example if they were to have an end of season decline it would be a much easier tie.

Leeds - Wigan (A CC), Bradford (H), Wakefield (A), Hull KR (A), Widnes (H), Catalans (A), (CC - Final?), Salford (H), Huddersfield (A).

Warrington - Catalan (H), Huddersfield (A CC), Castleford (A), Bradford (H), Saints (A), Wigan (H), London (A), (CC - Final?), Huddersfield (H), Widnes (A).

Huddersfield - Warrington (A CC), Wakefield (H), St Helens (A), Catalan (H), Salford (A), Bradford (H), (CC - Final?), Warrington (A), Leeds (H).

Catalan - Warrington (A), Hull FC (H), St Helens (H), London (H), Huddersfield (A), Hull FC (A), Leeds (H), Castleford (A), Bradford (H).

St Helens - Catalan (A), Huddersfield (H), Warrington (H), Wakefield (A), Castleford (H), London (H), Wigan (A).

Wigan - Leeds (A CC), London (A), Castleford (H), Hull FC (H), Warrington (A), Salford (H), (CC - Final?), Hull KR (A), St Helens (H).

Hull FC - Catalan (A), Hull KR (A), Salford (H), Wigan (A), Catalans (H), Widnes (A), Bradford (A), Castleford (H).

With all due respect, whats your point?

It depends most importantly on attitude when reaching the Playoffs, had Leeds won 1 more regular season game (which we should of done considering we lost twice to Quins) Hudds would of finished 5th, does anyone reckon Hudds could of beaten Hull at home followed by winning at Headingley and HJ and reach the GF then beat the Saints, apart from the Hull game i doubt it very much.

The history of this now 'all desirable 5th' since 8 team Playoffs. Wakefield finished 5th in 2009 and crumbled poorly against an 8th place Catalan who only just snuck into the Playoffs that year. Hudds finished 5th in 2010, would of lost to Crusaders if one of the Crusaders players didn't get himself sin-binned near the end of the game, did manage to go to Warrington that year and win (but i think that has more to do with my point about backing up from a CC win which Wire had just won), they then lost in the final eliminators to Saints, but so did 4th place Leeds to Wigan so no real difference.

In 3 seasons that we've had the 8 team playoffs, the CC winners have won 1 out of 5 games, Wigan at home against Catalan. Warrington didn't make the playoffs in 2009 after losing 6 of their last 8 league games, if anything the CC is throwing the big curveball into how the Playoffs pan out, had Wigan lost in the earlier rounds of the Cup last year i reckon they would of won the GF instead or at least reached Old Trafford.
Leeds responded to CC Finals defeats firstly in 2010 by going to Wigan from 4th place and winning before losing out to a great Wigan defensive performance in the return game, we won in 2011 from 5th after losing the Cup again. Huddersfield however after losing the 2009 CC, and finishing higher in 3rd limped out with loses to Saints 15-2 and 8th place Catalan 16-6, scoring just 8 points in the 2 games. The difference? Attitude and confidence. The most impressive thing about Leeds' run last year was that they did it weeks after losing out on the one trophy that's alluded them yet again, i'm not sure any other team in SL could of recovered from that scenerio.

I want Leeds to finish 4th, hell i'd love for them to get up to 3rd but that looks to be a tough ask. So we'd have to go to Wigan away most likely if we get 4th, so what? We won there in 2010, we won at Halliwell Jones in 2011. It would be an extremely hard game to win but i doubt these Leeds players would be intimated by that prospect unlike some other clubs who'll finish in the top 8. Leeds win there and we are an 80 mins home game from reaching another GF, bring that on i say.

Leeds win from 5th might actually turn out to be the best thing for the Playoffs and the sport and not the embarrassment some have tried to make it out to be. If the teams finishing 5th-8th look back to 2011 and realise it can actually be done then we could have 8 teams all fighting for the prize instead of 3 or 4 teams with the others just happy to make up the numbers and an end to some of the big scores we've seen in the last few years in the Playoffs. No one thought it could be done from them positions 12 months ago (although i'm sure those people who feel the need to always look correct will claim that they knew it could happen all along).

The remaining fixtures to see who plays who and comparision for the top spots? If you see, Saints still have to play Warrington, Wigan, Catalans, Huddersfield. Leeds still have to play Catalans, Huddersfield, Bradford. Warrington still have to play Catalans, Wigan, Saints, Huddersfield, Bradford. Catalans still have to play Leeds, Warrington, Hull FC x2, Saints, Bradford. Looking at it this way you can see who they still have to play in the top half of the table, and who they can drop points to.

I agree wholeheartedly and it's something I've said on here a few times.

The playoffs were a damp squib last year and Leeds display at Warrington saved them. Too many teams are in the playoffs to make up the numbers. If they follow our example the whole intensity of the playoffs should lift, but I won't hold my breath.

Leeds winning from 5th should give all clubs in the playoffs the inspiration but how many will follow our lead?

The real point is that there is only one team that can win it from 5th, and that's Leeds. There are only 4 teams capable of winning the GF (Wigan, Warrington, St Helens and Leeds) and only one of them could finish outside the top four in the next few years. The fans of Catalans, Huddersfield and Hull FC will all think they can win the GF, but in reality they can't. All other teams are also rans who won't make any impact whatsoever on the playoffs.

If Catalan finish 2nd which is very possible looking at the fixtures then they have a great chance of getting to Old Trafford. 2 home times in the playoffs should they win there first game with a break in the middle meaning that they dont have to fly back to england until a possible GF. they have the players and the coach but the constant flying back and forth is not good preparation so a solid month without travelling would be good for them.

I think they'll be lucky to finish top 4 from their fixtures tbh, starting with a loss tonight.

I think we can catch Catalans.

that game was one the best sporting moments of 2011, brilliant game i accidentally deleted it from the Sky box.

Why can't they? Everyone, including you, would have said the same thing about Leeds this time last year and everyone was saying the same thing about Leeds just three weeks ago.

There is no earthly reason why Catalan can't go on a run and win it. I am not suggesting they will, but to say they "can't" is too far IMO.

I take your point that its a pretty strong view, but ultimately they will not be able to win 3 games against top sides in consecutive weeks. Maybe I should have added IMO, as I suppose that's what it is.

I notice you only single out Catalans by the way, so I assume you agree about Huddersfield and Hull FC?

No I don't agree they "can't". I would suggest they "won't" might be better wording, IMO, of course.