Based on the number of points required last season to finish 4th (which I appreciate is only a guestimate of the points requirements this season), Leeds would require a minimum target of 38 points after 30 games.

On that basis, how many points would Leeds realistically require after 23 games?

Let's assume Leeds do qualify for the Top 8 and follow that up with 6 wins out of 7 after the split to reach 38 points. Optimistic, I know, but I'm playing the [i'My glass isn't half full, in fact it is positively overflowing'[/i card here.

That would mean Leeds would require 26 points after 23 games.

They've so far managed 4 points from 9 games.

Therefore they would require 22 points from the next 14 games which translates as a minimum of 11 wins out of the next 14 prior to the split.

They would require 20 points to qualify for the Top 8 which translates as a minimum of 8 wins out their next 14.

[uCONCLUSIONS[/u:
I no longer believe Leeds will qualify for the Top 4.

I do believe they'll qualify for the Top 8 after 23 rounds finishing 7th or 8th, but it's their SL season effectively over as 4th is out of reach.

They could provide nuisance value to those teams in the battle for the Top 4 though I suspect they'll more likely toss it off instead with nothing to play for and remain in 7th or 8th spot after 30 games.

I would say your post is spot on. Last week I would have said yes can qualify, not now. We will be above Wakey, Hull KR and Salford though. And by the end, above Widnes and Cas. But regardless of our points picked up, Wigan, Warrington, and Catalans will still pick up plenty, and Saints will be above us.

I am more concerned with performances, and development of players now, which is why I have a problem with the coach.

Leeds won't make the top 4?

Not much get's past this guy.

It was the coach's interview after the game yesterday which got me thinking about how many points Leeds would require to qualify. There was something about his mannerisms during the interview when he opined that Leeds were running out of games. I'm sure he's already concluded they've run out of games already.

I'll be surprised of he's at Leeds next season in his current capacity. Might be gone sooner if Leeds are dumped out of the CC early.

If you won the Challenge Cup, from the middle eights (just look at how Rovers suffered in the final, amongst other reasons of cours)then bizzarely that'd be the ultimate challenge achieved by Leeds ha!

You had the easiest Easter period fixtures on paper and lost all three us and Wakefield should have been gimme's and cas away wasn't the hardest or furthest away trip whereas we had the Hull Derby then Wigan and you away and we beat you with a young kid and SR as our halfs I didn't expect you to dominate this season but you have fallen away badly

I think Jeff is correct - no chance of the top 4 - it will take at 3/4 more weeks to get anything like a full strength side on the field by which time they could have lost a further few games.

It does put to bed the idea that a hard fixture list is one of the excuses for Leeds' lack of wins

I'd rather finish 9th then in the top 8 with nothing to play for.
I'd guess Leeds would stay up but it'd be fun visiting Batley, Fev, Bradford et al again.
Alternatively finish in top 8 then get the kids in & treat each game as a trial.

But we have two new stands to pay for, and the money we miss out on is significant. Not to mention the usual suspects on herd will tell us next year we will have done bad because we have to play in an earlier round of the cup.

No we won't make the top four. Unless things change I can't even see us winning a game for several weeks.
What will have concerned Gary and Paul Caddick was last Friday's mass early walk out.
Potentially a drop in next years season ticket sales.
I caught the second half of the wakefield salford game. Wakefield showed tremendous courage and spirit in preventing salford from scoring the match winning try.
Sadly at the moment we don't have any spirit or courage in our squad if players.

Given that we are about to be the bottom of the league, I'm thinking 'no'.

No.

This squad is exhausted. A season to breath. If they want to come back stronger next year then things need freshening up. It happened when Bluey took over and in some way it happened when McD came in.
You can just tell when it's time for something fresh, Sinny and Peacock leaving has taken two hugely dominant personalities out of the dressing room. Time to re-energise the first team with a different coaching approach.
Keep McD at the club by all means, he's earned that, but a senior squad head coach with total control over rugby.

Could be a lot worse.

Leeds ain't Bradford Bulls... YET.

And the coach isn't James Lowes... YET.

Wish I could laugh that off

Could be a lot worse.

We could be Ben Stokes right now!

Never a death bowler that guy. Seems to get the gig because "he wants to be in the thick of the action". Although must be said the batters messed it up firstly by not scoring enough, Stokes included again and Morgan hasn't played well for ages.

IMO the Rhinos have no chance what so ever of making the top 4 play offs, I believe that your priority is actually making the top 8 after the split rather than playing in the middle 8's

You guys wont like this one bit but I seriously think that you need a cull within your squad ASAP

I would get rid of these players at the end of this season (although it won't happen as some of them are under contract)
Burrow - You can only get away with those scoots across the field so many times a season,and that is all that he can do TBF,He's Only worth a bench spot at best,but who's place would he take in the 17?
Falloon-OMG this lad is garbage and is a pale imitation of Aiton (Who should have been retained without a doubt)
Achurch-Heart of a pea and probably on a nice salary too


You need a dominant half back in your side urgently and where do you get them from?
Sutcliffe and Lilley are OK and will be quality but they are far too inexperienced as a pair ATM

As you say Stokes isn't a death bowler. Willie was on fire, if Morgan had held him back for the last over England would have got home no problem. But the blame can be shared around. England were 20 runs short (at least). Losing a couple of early wickets, Morgan doing his favourite trick of block block block out. Even Joe Root, for all he batted brilliantly again, played a needless shot when England needed him to bat until the end. Then in WI's innings they didn't take advantage early on when a 4th wicket would have killed it off. Billings drop was a big moment too. Still, it's a young team, good learning curve for them. I'd certainly be giving the captaincy to Root and finding another man to bat at 4 though, Morgan's good innings are extremely few and far between these days.

Anyway, thread drift.

Ahh don't worry their's numerous threads on here all saying the same thing just with different thread titles.

Agree Root's dismissal was disappointing, you could just sense that he was getting frustrated with his partners getting themselves out and then he did the same, but at least he gave us a chance. Morgan should be dropped and made to find form away from the international game. They have most of the ingredients to be successful just need to have someone in form batting at number 4 and a top bowler coming in to close out innings. I know Stokes got a couple out at the death vs NZ but wasn't exactly great bowling just poor shots by the batters so the potential that if the batter got it right against him he could go for runs at the death and that's what happened in the final.

Posted elsewhere, but just for you:

It sounds like BM has conceded that top 4 is becoming a huge challenge. Given that performances have got worse rather than better I'd say the cause is almost lost already.

This sort of thing is generally over well before you have to start talking mathematical "possibilities".

The biggest question is can we make the top 8 because form will have to improve markedly just to scrape into that you would think with some tough away assignments on the horizon.

True enough, but you do still wonder how they got there. They were too good to be fearing relegation.

Interesting graph.

I think some of the earlier SL regular season ladders gave the appearance of being more competitive than they were in reality. I'm referring to the top teams playing each other three times instead of twice. Therefore the closing of the points gap between 1st and 8th may be more pronounced in recent seasons than indicated.

On the topic of Leeds, I still believe they'll scrape into the Top 8 somehow (by hook or by crook). Given their current hopeless position, that's not an opinion steeped in arrogance either. It's more to do with my views on the poor standards being set by the rest of the SL competition. The high jump bar for Top 8 qualification is set at a mediocre height IMO.

Having said that, if Leeds current form is to continue for another couple of games then it's the Middle 8's for them for sure. A defeat away to Salford this weekend may well be enough to turn that prospect into a certainty.