It’s a weird situation, in that everybody wants to get to the same place, and the argument is around the process and level of control over it. So, although it is very important issue, I don’t think it should be a big problem. It’s just that the ERG and DUP hold the balance of power in the UK. I can understand the DUP’s position, even if I disagree with it. But the ERG can get stuffed for me - they’ve got a really pretty hard Brexit on the table and still they’re quibbling.

As for the two nations coming to an agreement, is the thought there that the EU are preventing Ireland from giving way on this? From a UK perspective, it’d obviously strengthen our hand to negotiate directly with one smaller country. But for Ireland, the EU’s support is valuable in getting their preferred ordering of the process.

Would you trust the British government??!!

I don't trust any politician from any party mate, do you trust the EU bureaucrats ???.

Don't forget the ERG are a small group of Tory back benchers led by Reece Mogg if both main parties vote for the deal then they will become rather insignificant, in an interview with Nadine Dorres (think that's her name

) from the ERG she seemed quite positive if the backstop can be improved (time will tell), however, having said that, Mays deal as it is was totally blown out of the water by all sides in record numbers, so the politicians on both sides must know something I don't. It didn't seem so bad to me, but like most of us I only got the snippets revealed on the tv. My worry is that when the next vote comes on her hopefully revised deal that party politics might over ride what is imo best for the country in coming out with a decent deal.

With regards the DUP, I did have sympathy with their position even though I'm not a lover of the party, they felt that there would be a border in the Irish Sea, that they would have different rules than the rest of the UK with no agreed end date.

Yeah, I think that reflects May’s bind. She was strongly incentivised to tailor her deal to appeal to the ERG to hold her party together. If they say no, the only reasons Labour MPs could have for voting for a deal that reflects most of their priorities much less well are:
1. Deals similar to that struck with the DUP (ie cash for constituencies, in return for their MP’s votes)
2. Desperation as calamity arrives - ie the national interest.

She’s done a little bit of sounding out on the former, but it’s not a good look and Labour MPs are even less likely to believe her promises than the ERG.

The second is why she’s kept no deal hanging over us all like the sword of Damocles.

It’s like one of those games psychologists sometimes construct so demonstrate irrational behaviours or misaligned incentives. With the perversity of the ERG moving it from difficult to unwinable.

It’s March now! We leave this month! Maybe. Don’t want to commit to anything too soon. Not while those others might chicken out. Carry on Brexit, innit?

They already have different rules. They have their medieval laws on abortion & same-sex marriage, & there are already checks on cattle arriving in NI from the mainland UK. Hypocritical, bigoted, homophobic, climate change denying, misogynistic scum.

It wasn't just the ERG in my opinion, it was the way May went about it with this gung ho attitude, which caused the ERG on one side and Anna Sourpuss's group on the other and she managed to appease neither with her deal as well as alienating all the other parties. She had to be taken to court to enable a meaningful vote in the commons, which for me was so unbelievably undemocratic. I just wished with this being such a massive decision for this country why we couldn't have entered the negotiations as a cross party group of both Tory & Labour.

I still don't think no deal should be taken off the table just as a bargaining tool, yes as has been reported we will be much worse off than the EU as a whole but most if not all the other 27 will be worse off to differing degrees. The country that will be the most worst off apart from us are our nearest and dearest the Irish as their economy is linked to ours, we never gave them a loan when the euro crashed out of the goodness our hearts. the main sticking point we are led to believe is the backstop as we have discussed.

It may be a stupid analogy but we have Nuclear Weapons, do we want to use them hell no, would we be worse off if we did hell yes. Hopefully just an insurance as the no deal is now. I know that's a bit extreme but the only one I could think of at short notice, so don't shoot me down please

We’re back to the “do what I want or I’ll jump off this cliff” method of negotiating. Colleagues overseas think we’ve all gone nuts.

Nutty Brits, Nothing new there then

Don't hold back mate just come out and say it

. Wow you really don't like them do you but you have highlighted some of the reasons why I said I don't like the party.

It seems simple doesn’t it?

I think the issue, ultimately, is that May and Corbyn don’t like each other (which they maybe could have put aside for national good - I doubt May and Arlene Foster are planning a girl’s weekend at a spa anytime soon), and worse they don’t trust each other. Even a little bit. Also they’d both face major backlashes from their members if they started cosying up.

I think the nuclear option metaphor works pretty well! My only caveat is that there isn’t a deadline that you have to launch a first strike by. May has to press the button or withdraw the threat by the end of the month. Or extend the agony.

I don't think we should withdraw the treat, agreed most of the 27 might not have as much to lose as the UK but it just might be enough to help us get past the post with a deal that the commons can agree to.

I just wonder how much it will cost the UK tax payer to extend the agony just for a couple of months

Fair enough. Would you keep it on the table as a bluff and withdraw it at the very last moment? Which isn’t far away now. Or actually go for it?

The other leverage May has is the threat of no-no-deal - that could push the ERG to accept the deal, albeit unhappily. Peel off a few from Labour with investments in their areas, maybe redirecting cash from the DUP’s pot if they’re not going to support the government. And then we get on with stage 2. Yay!

So, Tom Watson appears to have 5hit the bed somewhat.

They keep saying that any deals with the EU is always at the last minute so I'm still hopeful, I'm more worried about getting it through the commons to be fair with all the internal politics.

I would leave no deal on the table, I really can't see a no deal scenario, it's a lose lose for all sides. We only hear of the UK side from business etc warning of the possible outcome, surely the same pressure is coming on the other 27. I just can't believe the Irish, French and Germans etc are not that bothered. It's not that long ago the Irish and the Greeks were absolutely skint. I say stop jockeying about, stop playing games and get the deal done on all sides.

My worry is that now that, "Everything is still on the table Labour" have come down on a new referendum side that no matter the deal, Labour will now join the Lib Dems, SNP etc and plumb for another referendum. If that is the case and if remain is to be on the ballot paper then the only other option should be no deal, in or out IMO

Those last minute deals tend to be addendums and clarifications, which previously the hardliners have said wouldn’t be enough. However, there’s maybe a few signs that they’re thawing as the clock ticks down. They’ll reiterate that it is temporary, but without a specific time limit (perhaps an expectation of within X years), and there’ll be no unilateral exit mechanism. And that’ll either be enough or it won’t. Despite the record defeat last time, the unappealing prospects of delay or no deal might be enough. Maybe.

I doubt there’s anywhere near the same level of interest elsewhere in the EU. Which isn’t to say they aren’t bothered. But imagine it was Spain leaving instead of us - I doubt Spexit would be affecting our politics or dominating our news in remotely the same way. It’d be covered, and there’d be concern about the impact, but it’d be a bit more distant, a bit less scary and frankly I think we’d be saying, they made their choice, it is their problem. We’d be demanding our elderly emigrants rights were unaffected, solidifying our sovereignty in Gibraltar and backing the Portuguese if there were any border issues, most likely.

To be fair and honest mate can't disagree with any of that. lets just hope it goes through this time and me move on, think the majority of the country would breath a sigh of relief.

Yep - I know I would, anyway.

With respect, I think your view on what the majority want is a little leave-centric. The people who would breathe a sigh of relief are those that voted to leave (the diminishing percentage who haven't subsequently changed their mind that is). The idea that the "I'm bored of it now, lets just get on with it" view is the majority is probably wishful thinking, and actually is a mindset almost exclusive to to the leave demographic.

To be fair I cannot argue with what you say, our point on here for the most part are peoples take on things, as you quite rightly point out I might be looking at it from a leave point of view, however, I have heard individuals not just leave voters on the box saying we have had the vote just now get on with it, so that other issues that should be priority "Social Care" etc can. But that does not mean as you say that the majority have the same mindset.

Can I ask how you come to the view that the people who voted leave are a diminishing percentage ??.

Almost, maybe, but not quite.

I voted remain, and in the unlikely event of another referendum, I would again.

But my/our side lost, and might well do again. I doubt remain would win decisively in any case.

It’s not so much just that I’m bored with it (although I definitely am), it’s just that eventually we have to move beyond this. Ultimately, this bad deal is better than no deal, and delay... well, it just delays things to no obvious end.

Indeed
At some point our elected members are going to have to make a decision.
Mrs May and her closest allies are still holding the metaphorical gun to the head of all of the MP's, with "my way or no deal" and we do look like the "bad deal" may well be preferable to "no deal", oh the irony.

We all need to hope that the negotiators charged with securing a decent trade deal are somewhat better than the clowns who have sorted out the withdrawal agreement.

We've been led along like donkeys on Blackpool beech, following the EU27's path all of the way.

I was reading a piece in the Financial Times (not my usual read, free in an airport lounge) the reporter said if there were a peoples vote (Referendum) that remain might just win this time, this is because there are a whole host of young voters that weren't eligible to vote in 2016 and it is thought the majority would vote to remain, however, it would probably still be a close result which wouldn't achieve anything apart from alienating the population further.

He voted to remain and as you would do so again but to what end. his opinion was that the politicians need to get on and sort it.

Two main reasons. Firstly, because most polling (yes I know polls have a bad reputation) shows the majority now want to remain. And the lead for remain appears to be consistently higher than before the referendum. These are polls not just from remainer organisations but also non partisan organisations such as yougov, so they have a degree of credibility.

Secondly it's just a case of basic changes in demographics. Hundreds of thousands of leave voting elderly are now dead, whereas there is an influx of young people (typically but not exclusively remainers), who are now old enough to vote.

On balance, I can't see how leave could be the majority view any more. I accept it's far from certain though and I am, of course, not a neutral observer.