Just for the record, the IMF growth forecast for the UK is based on an orderly exit from the EU along with a transition period and not for Mr Johnson's "do or die" version of Brexit.

Of course, there may be a new deal brokered but, I wouldn't bank on it (pun intended).
And do your really think that "they can whistle for the 39 billion without a decent deal" is going to help the UK.

We agreed the 39 billion as part of the withdrawal agreement. If we leave without a deal there is no agreement.
I'll admit that legal opinion is divided on the matter but I wouldn't just hand it over without a fight.
And why are you so fixated on the

emoji?

I dont think that there is any grey area on the £39 billion at all.
The threat of not paying is just "grandstanding" from a few of our politicians, which just makes them look stupid, although it makes great headlines it's just political bluster.
As for the emoji, it's better to use that than go off on full rant mode.
The ruling political classes on the right of the Tory party have pushed the Brexit agenda ever since we joined the common market as they are obsessed with ruling our small island, regardless of whether it is beneficial to the population as a whole and again, some of the much less well off have been taken in, voting themselves a poorer future.
Sold on the idea of shrinking immigration and fake prosperity it was all too easy to vote against Cameron and Osborne.

We're now 10 weeks away from Halloween and NOBODY knows what happens on November 1st, it's absolutely crazy - and that's without the emoji.

Perhaps THE most ironic aspect so far, of Boris's reign, is that, we are supposedly fighting to have a sovereign Parliament and yet, he wants to close down Parliament to force through his Brexit agenda and again, certain factions of the voting public think that he would be right to do so.

From democracy to a dictatorship in just a few short weeks.

There is a grey area as far as the 39 billion is concerned. I have read several differing outlooks on the subject.
As far as Johnson bending the rules, isn't that what the speaker and several MP'S have been doing for the last three years.
BTW nice to get a reply without being called crazy. We both are entitled to our opinions and neither of us has the divine right to be correct.

Meanwhile the Italian banks are still struggling with massive debts. They are propped up by the European Central Bank, which is against EU rules. The German taxpayers are becoming concerned about constantly being asked to bail out Greece and Italy.
It’s no surprise to learn that the country to lose most with a collapse of the Italian banks is France. Hence the ECB bailing out the Italian banks. In fact they have taken one over to support it’s bad debts. The French exposure to this crisis is 275 billion euros . The German exposure is 58 billion euros a large part is with Deutsche Bank. Who are also struggling in the present economic climate. Our own exposure is with Barclays for approximately 15 billion euros.
If we remain in the EU we will be expected to contribute to any bailout. It’s no wonder the EU is desperate for our 39 billion per year contribution. Money is also leaving the EU mostly going to Switzerland. The present turmoil in France has been quite deliberately kept out of the mainstream media. Understandably ,as it shows a country virtually in revolt due to plummeting wages and living standards. The people in Paris are oblivious to this scenario, similar to the chattering class in London.
Merkel and macron are papering over the EU cracks at the moment , once Merkel leaves office things will change quite dramatically. We live in interesting times.

Small point of order.

£39 billion is the "divorce" bill and not our annual contribution, which I believe is around £13 billion ??

Point accepted.

I think one of the interesting things is that there are some internally consistent and fairly compelling reasons for leaving the EU. It is far from perfect. However, no single one of those arguments, or even a sensible combination, would have been enough to win the referendum, so the leave campaigns grabbed them all, and a few that are rubbish for good measure, and offered them all, tailored to individuals’ social media profiles.

Politically it was brilliant. Really.

From a policy perspective, not so much.

You can still make a strong case for leaving the EU in an alternative reality in which we have a workable plan. But we don’t, we never did and that is why we’re knackered.

Another separate point, not relating to the post l’ve quoted: It seems like democracy is getting cited a lot in some quarters to justify ‘our’ demands to the EU. That they’re somehow being unreasonable by not acceding to the wishes expressed by the British people and their parliament. But other countries have sovereignty too. We could vote to have free cheese from France, all of Germany’s bratwurst and Portugal’s virgin daughters, but it wouldn’t be anti-democratic for them to say ‘no’. We can’t just dictate a deal on our own terms. When Gove said we’d hold all the cards when we left, everybody knew that was nonsense, even at the time... right?

Absolutely true - the various Leave campaign's scattergun approach to selling the virtues of leaving the EU, based on whatever the Facebook algorithm told them people wanted to hear, has left them with a rather pyrrhic victory, in that everyone who "won" feels that they won something different - most of which can't be delivered in the pesky real world, which we are now rather abruptly running into.

I think you're analysis is spot-on - we are well and truly knackered; and if this was a quest for the sovereignty of parliament and 'taking back control' - it will be interesting to see how Boris Johnson's doomed plan to prorogue parliament and squat in no10 regardless of the results of any VoNC actually plays out. Well - as interesting as a tanking economy, food shortages, lack of medical supplies and mass job losses can be.

Reading all the comments about the EU makes me wonder how we managed before it was thought of.

It’s not some shining beacon. Real things rarely are, whereas imagined things can be more often.

The problem with Brexit is that it is moving, slowly, agonisingly, shamblingly from a myriad of imagined versions to single ragged eared reality. And with that, it becomes the position that needs to be defended, and the most successful arguments on any topic are generally based on attack.

Think of it as to how people shopped before the supermarkets came along.
Everything under one roof, immense buying power and not getting pushed around by smaller shops.

Our nation of shopkeepers now thinks that we can do better as a corner shop as they are unable to get on with their neighbours.
Mind you, we cant even get along with ourselves.

There were no forriners then so it wasn't an issue.

The world was very different back then.

In the economic cycle who is to say we would not be in a recession again - we have had plenty since our time in the EU - membership of the EU doesn't make the UK recession-proof.

You think on such a simplistic level - what the EU want is complete central control and eventually no elections as the control will be with non-elected bureaucrats - that is what the fight is for not immigration. Why should we be propping up less affluent nations within the EU we already spend Bn's on foreign aid. Its is bad enough now - so we have a second vote, which is no deal or stay - what happens if no deal wins - how can these politicians implement that? How can you rally against the burgers in Brussels?

If we actually start to use more of our own produce then perhaps the levels of inflation could be controlled - we are not going to change into a banana republic over night

The 39bn is a bargaining chip - the EU really needs it - whilst no one country will be impacted as much as us, collectively the EU will suffer more than we will. Why would they just not let us go? If you think the EU will not negotiate a trade deal then I think you are naïve but then I think on this matter your thinking is very superficial anyway

Really, you know this, how? Who are these bureaucrats? You think a country like Germany, with massively powerful federalism, is going to allow this? Don't tell me, the Germans will control everything so it won't matter to them?


And what's stopping us now? Only the fact we don't produce anything.

Really, do you believe that France or Germany would want to be controlled by the people that you speak of ?
The people that you speak of are in many ways, similar to our own civil service.

Somebody has to implement the will of the politicians or maybe you think that Merkel and Macron should "sign the cheques" ?

As for propping up less affluent nations - this is exactly what should happen in this type of organisation or would you prefer that Germany takes control or, perhaps Britannia should enslave them and bring them into the Commonwealth.

As for Banana Republic, I agree, it wont happen overnight but, the hard truth is that NOBODY knows what happened if we end up with "No Deal" and personally, I prefer to have a little more certainty in my life.

It's ok for Reece Mogg and Boris etc, their lives will still be mighty comfortable and as usual, those lower down the shaft will be squeezed yet again - some things will never change

Oh we managed brilliantly, one million British killed during the two wars, oh for the good old days!

In what way have they stopped us leaving?

If you mean the £39 billion, that largely covered the transitional period and pre-existing ongoing commitments. The transitional period was pretty uncontroversial and generally seen as being close to necessary until recently.

The Irish border problem could be dealt with during a transitional period, but it is a big one without a solution that pleases everybody on the UK side. If it is naive to think the EU trade deal won’t be quick and easy, then equally it is naive to think the backstop will ever be needed, no?

If it is just that they haven’t delivered what Johnson, Gove, Davis and Farage promised, then it is gullibility and sulks stopping us leaving rather than the EU.

We were paying net 9bn? a year which would continue until we left - so how is we are paying a further £39bn post leaving? So we can continue to support the wasteful EU?

Are you suggesting the EU have been helpful in trying to support an orderly withdrawl - seriously. May and her team were the worst team of negotiators imaginable and that is a significant contributory factor as why we are in the mess we are.

The trade deal will be quick because the EU will suffer most - it will be an interesting discussion when the unelected council get pressure from the pesky members who pay their wages.

The final reason is we have a bunch of MPs approx. 70% who will do everything they can to avoid implementing the democratic vote. It is typical of what happens when the public defy the politicians, look in Scotland they had a referendum that was supposed to be once in a generation the SNP didn't get the result they wanted so they are spoiling for another vote, same with regards to Brexit.

What happens if we have another vote - no deal exit or leave and we vote for a no deal exit? No doubt we will continue having votes until the MPs get the result they want.

France and Germany effectively run the EU most would agree with that - which country does the new boss man come from?

I didn't realise the EU was a charitable entity - there to bail out countries that cannot support themselves? Originally it was a trade collaboration which has simply got a far bigger agenda i.e. a federal Europe.

Listen to the likes of Guy Verhofstadt - his articulation of what the EU should be is why we need to extricate ourselves

You want certainty - really do you know what will happen tomorrow - no of course not so why is certainty suddenly so important?

Ever heard of "the bigger picture".

Despite "our" rush to become Little Englanders, belonging to the EU does mean that the wealthier nations contribute more than the poorer countries, which is a fairly sensible way forward.
Over time this should allow those poorer nation to become a little stronger and eventually be in a position to contribute themselves.
I know this doesn't fit with a capitalist ethos and that some people are happy with poverty, just as long as they are ok and of course, the larger that the trading bloc becomes overall, the more power that they have when taking on their own trade negotiations - something that certain factions in the UK are utterly blind to or, too arrogant to realise the benefit of collective bargaining.
Also there are politics at work in enticing some of the old eastern bloc countries to "move west" but, we should probably leave that subject for another day.
As for what may happen tomorrow.
You are right to say that nobody knows for sure but, there is some history / track record and whilst not 100% certain, most people would be fairly comfortable in knowing where they will be week on week and it's a pretty weak argument to try and infer that staying within the EU has substantially less certainty to Brexit. It's an absolutely ridiculous comparison.
In Russian Roulette, you may not shoot yourself but, there is a bloody site more chance than if you dont pick up the gun.

Quote ="Sal Paradise"We were paying net 9bn? a year which would continue until we left - so how is we are paying a further £39bn post leaving? So we can continue to support the wasteful EU? Are you suggesting the EU have been helpful in trying to support an orderly withdrawl - seriously. May and her team were the worst team of negotiators imaginable and that is a significant contributory factor as why we are in the mess we are. The trade deal will be quick because the EU will suffer most - it will be an interesting discussion when the unelected council get pressure from the pesky members who pay their wages. The final reason is we have a bunch of MPs approx. 70% who will do everything they can to avoid implementing the democratic vote. It is typical of what happens when the public defy the politicians, look in Scotland they had a referendum that was supposed to be once in a generation the SNP didn't get the result they wanted so they are spoiling for another vote, same with regards to Brexit. What happens if we have another vote - no deal exit or leave and we vote for a no deal exit? No doubt we will continue having votes until the MPs get the result they want.'" The transition period was originally planned to run for 20 months, I think we’re effectively in it now and if the withdrawal agreement were passed it’d still run to the end of 2020. During that time, I assume the UK that distributions would continue as if we were a member, in which case switching to the net contribution wouldn’t be appropriate. Tbf, I don’t know that. The rest of the divorce agreement covers prior commitments. I’m not that familiar with the detail, but given you’re just asking questions I assume you’re not either. Tbf, it’s not hard to get up to speed. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_divorce_bill I think the EU’s response to the UK’s position has been pretty fair and rational, and certainly predictable. May’s negotiating position may have been poor, but the UK chose her (sort of), not the EU. It is a turd, but it is our turd and we have to take ownership of it. Whining on that are others won’t do what we tell them isn’t a great start for a supposedly newly independent nation. Also, Brexiteer MP’s votes were key to preventing an orderly withdraw - pretty much on, from their perspective, the best realistic terms they could have got.

Quote ="Sal Paradise"We were paying net 9bn? a year which would continue until we left - so how is we are paying a further £39bn post leaving? So we can continue to support the wasteful EU? Are you suggesting the EU have been helpful in trying to support an orderly withdrawl - seriously. May and her team were the worst team of negotiators imaginable and that is a significant contributory factor as why we are in the mess we are. The trade deal will be quick because the EU will suffer most - it will be an interesting discussion when the unelected council get pressure from the pesky members who pay their wages. The final reason is we have a bunch of MPs approx. 70% who will do everything they can to avoid implementing the democratic vote. It is typical of what happens when the public defy the politicians, look in Scotland they had a referendum that was supposed to be once in a generation the SNP didn't get the result they wanted so they are spoiling for another vote, same with regards to Brexit. What happens if we have another vote - no deal exit or leave and we vote for a no deal exit? No doubt we will continue having votes until the MPs get the result they want.'" The transition period was originally planned to run for 20 months, I think we’re effectively in it now and if the withdrawal agreement were passed it’d still run to the end of 2020. During that time, I assume the UK that distributions would continue as if we were a member, in which case switching to the net contribution wouldn’t be appropriate. Tbf, I don’t know that. The rest of the divorce agreement covers prior commitments. I’m not that familiar with the detail, but given you’re just asking questions I assume you’re not either. Tbf, it’s not hard to get up to speed. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_divorce_bill I think the EU’s response to the UK’s position has been pretty fair and rational, and certainly predictable. May’s negotiating position may have been poor, but the UK chose her (sort of), not the EU. It is a turd, but it is our turd and we have to take ownership of it. Whining on that are others won’t do what we tell them isn’t a great start for a supposedly newly independent nation. Also, Brexiteer MP’s votes were key to preventing an orderly withdraw - pretty much on, from their perspective, the best realistic terms they could have got.

I think most xenophobes would agree with you. After all, they've swallowed the biule & hatred from the Mail & Express for the last 40+ years.
Tusk is Polish, Juncker Luxembourgish. So what? Both were elected.

Can anyone remember a time pre-referendum, when any mainstream voices were decrying the EU and membership thereof? With the exception of Nigel Farage and a few crusty Tory nutjobs with misty-eyed fantasies about the Thatcher days, it was accepted as an imperfect but advantageous arrangement - particularly given that we'd managed to negotiate disproportionately favourable membership terms.

Cut to today - and 50% of your average man in the street, fat on a diet of propaganda and Facebook chicanery, is utterly convinced that the EU is the sole cause of everything they perceive to be wrong in their lives; school places, NHS shortages, wage suppression, kipper packaging and immigration, regardless of its source.

As someone else has already said - political genius, but it has fundamentally damaged the fabric of our society in such a deep and serious way, that it will take a generation to repair; doesn't feel like anyone has won anything to me - apart from the non-dom disaster capitalists, who are already making a killing on the ForEx markets.