Interesting but dangerous times ahead. Unless things change dramatically we will leave the EU in October, whilst Labour and others are castigating Johnson for a so called no deal brexit. The fact of the matter is May agreed a deal with the EU who have consistently stated it’s the only deal on offer. Also it’s not open for further negotiations, including the Irish backstop, May brought this deal back and parliament voted it down 3 times. The no deal scenario was set in place when parliament rightly or wrongly voted the May deal down. The dangerous part is Varadkar claiming a United Irish republic might solve the situation, he may regret letting that genie out of the bottle. Balance of probabilities will be a general election, it’s virtually impossible to rule without a reasonable majority. No legislation can be passed so Johnson will be forced to go the country. The Tory’s will have a good old fashioned clear out. Grieve, Wollaston, soubry, and a few others will be deselected. Jezza thinks he can win an election, if the brexiit brigade team up with the Tory’s ,Labour could well be defeated. The only party with any optimism is the lib dems. Be ironic if they held the balance in parliament .

Didn't say Carney was that bad. Just used him as an example of how these financial experts get it consistently wrong. I notice you haven't refuted that fact. You may not think that getting our sovereignty back is important but I do. As I have stated in the past on here untruths and downright lies have been told on BOTH sides. The biggest one of all was by Heath back in the 70's telling us it was just a free trade agreement. This isn't just about economics to me but I do happen to believe after a short downturn we will be better off in the long run. I may be wrong but so, my friend, might you.

Here we go again.
You didn't say he was "that bad" but you certainly questioned his judgement, as if to doubt that we will suffer an economic shock if a "no deal" exit happens on 31st October.
Yes, of course economists dont get it right every time, sometimes we are talking degrees of error and on other occasions, most notably the crash of 2007/2008 but, Carney is certainly viewed as a safe pair of hands and was asked to stay in his current position until Brexit was done.
As for Sovereignty, what exactly are you wanting/expecting post Brexit.
There will be no magical lightening bolt and even in the best case scenario, we will have some very difficult years ahead, with no guarantee of improvement in the long term.

We may be able to pass "our own laws" but, like it or not, Britain cannot survive on it's own and we will still have to satisfy EU regulations for any goods that we wish to supply over there.
Either we need to cosy up even closer to the US or still ally ourselves with The EU.
It was interesting a few weeks ago, that following the oil tanker seizure by the Iranians, Britain, no longer capable of fighting it's own quarter, instantly wanted help from Europe.

We have a decent sized ecconomy, these days, largely built on finance, something that our former "friends" in Europe will be desperate to take a slice of and remembering that much of our finance is actually servicing "European" money, they are likely to take some of this business and as outsiders, we will be powerless to prevent this, which wouldn't happen is we were within the EU.

You also have to think that Scotland will be striving harder still to gain their own independence which will weaken Britain's position still further.

Everyone have a cup of tea and laugh at John McDonnel, Cringebin's left hand man, and another Labour loser.

Surely you're not saying that he's better comedy value than our all new Prime Minister



In a class (cabinet) full of clowns, Boris is still the class clown and while he may be enthusiastic, gaffs are his speciality.
Let's hope that he never presses the wrong button, just to see what it does, ooops.

On his tour to bring the country together, he ed of the Welsh, fell out with the scots and he seems happy to have the Irish bombing each other and yet you choose to take a swipe at Corbyn and McDonnel. Quality, I can see why you vote Tory and want Brexit

Talking of losers.

Thing is, I know facts.

But it's OK, Cringebin is busy watching Football, I think he has a Geography lecture shortly, and he will claim the Earth is flat.

Try stating some instead of childish Daily Mail headlines. I don't think you've had an original thought in any of your sad iterations.

I dislike Labour (or work shy as I call them), and I do NOT read the Daily Mail. But keep the attempted insults coming, just makes you look the "individual" that you are.

pathetic

They are opinions, not facts. A bit like your Daily Mail headlines.

To coin a phrase "here we go again"
Of course I'm questioning his judgement in certain cases. It's not like he hasn't made mistakes in the past. Just who views him as a safe pair of hands? It was May who asked him to stay on. Are you saying you agree with her judgement ? If so I bet its the only thing, conveniently, on which you do.
You say economic shock, I say short term downturn. Which phrase you agree with depends on which side of the Brexit fence you're on.
Yes we can make our own laws and just as importantly hold our representatives to account for the laws they make. Instead of them throwing their collective hands in the air and proclaiming "it wasn't me guv" and blaming the EU for the country's ills.
Of course we will have to comply with EU regulations to export to them. Just as we do with every other country we trade with and just like they will have to comply with ours. Its nothing new.
Ah yes financial services. 52% of our exports to the EU are financial /business services. No tariffs on them, look it up. Interestingly we run a £29billion surplus on those but a £93 billion deficit on trade in goods.
Finally the oil tanker episode. Yes we did ask the EU for help as we are still funding them. Did we get it?

I'd hope you'd be sensible enough to realise this is just our politicians are lying and not taking responsibility rather than it being the truth. Them lying about what power they have is not a good reason for abandoning our fundamental trading relationship.

The reality is our rules will just match theirs because it would be impractical for most international businesses to manufacture to different UK standards. But whereas we had/currently have outsized influence on setting those rules, going forward we won't.

I wish there was a head in hands smiley. "No tariffs on them, look it up" is such a fundamentally wrong understanding of such a key part of why Brexit is an absolute disaster for the key economic driver of our economy I don't know where to start, but if that misunderstanding in any way led you to think voting leave was a good idea I recommend you do some better research.

Oh dear, I just dont know where to start.

However, tariff's aren't the issue which will affect some of our grip on financial services to the EU.
Fundamentally, why would you want to rely on a 3rd party country, outside of your trading block, to service all of your finances ?

The reality is that, other EU nations have been desperate to take over some of this business for many years, however, have not done so due to the UK being in the same "club" and it would have been politically wrong for the EU to allow any fundamental change. However, as an outsider, there will be zero protection. More importantly, why would they want to "trust" a sovereign nation with an unstable leader, when this work can be done "in house".
Although we dont always get our own way, we do currently have a seat at the "top table" in the EU, which Boris & Co are desperate to relinquish.
So keen is he and his ilk to be the big fish in a small pond, that he is willing to jeopardise all of our futures for his 15 minutes of fame, similar to Nick Clegg power sharing with the Tories a few years ago.
Fortunately, the Libdems have been able to make a comeback of sorts, but, such was Clegg's quest for his 15 minutes of fame, that he almost wiped his party off the political map.
The UK is doing exactly the same.

So, the U.K. economy shrinks for the first time since 2012 & the pound in now down to £1.08 against the Euro.

The slow motion car crash is starting to accelerate, but no fear, everything will be fine, in the future when all's well.

I should think there will be some very shrewd speculators poised to make millions out of these protracted "negotiations". The people in the know will soon be doing very nicely.

IR80 Fact 1 - Whaley Bridge is in Yorkshire
IR80 Fact 2 - Hetherington is involved with the RFL

Difficult to take Q2 figures in isolation - Q2 was impacted by stock increases in Q1 due to supposed exit 31 March. Put the two together and you have a growth of 0.3 - in line with France.

I guess we'll find out when the next quarter is finished.

If I was a gambling man, I'd give you even money on another flat quarter or possibly a technical recession.

There was a "secret" boom in Q1 due to companies stock piling to take the "bumps" out of any issues with importing post Brexit.
Those companies then had to sell their excess stocks, meaning reduced purchasing.
I'm not sure that averaging Q1 and Q2 gives you the true indicator you will need to wait a little longer to find out just how strong and stable we are as the cliff edge gets ever closer.

And this is only the beginning of the "project fear" predictions.
As Bachman Turner Overdrive put it, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

Boris will be borrowing, like Labour on speed, just to try and maintain some growth.

Look back to the original Brexit thread for "I told you so".

I look at this and even the worst projections are nowhere near the detrimental impact of the banking crisis and we have managed to survive that intact with reasonable economic performance. We also have the 39bn as a buffer that could be injected into the economy to help mitigate the impact of the leaving with no deal.

What is obvious is that May was completely out of depth as a negotiator and has negatively impacted the whole position

Depends whose projections you read I suppose.

Is that the royal "we"? How do you define "survive"?



I think most of that if not all will be paid eventually in order to get a trade deal.

No deal should be avoided. It wasn't what was advertised in the referendum. Nor is it in anyway good for the UK.

We went from sunlit uplands and the easiest trade deal in history - to this - in 3 years; what a fu**ing joke we have become.

The point is that YOU and your ilk have voted in the recession that is looming and for what ?
So that we can create our own laws and "control" immigration ??

Over half of the current immigration was "controlled", with around 300,000 people coming into the UK from outside the EU ??

I fully understand the issues around sovereignty, although on the flip side, we literally be a stand alone island, going it alone, without the protection and opportunities that arise from being part of the largest trading bloc in the western world.

I just hope that you will enjoy the higher prices and interest rate increases that will be coming our way, after all, it's what you wanted



The £39 billion is a debt owed to the EU for that which WE agreed.
Are you seriously suggesting that our once great nation begins it's new independent life by reneging on it's debts.
That will really elevate our status, NOT.

If it was just a trade deal we wouldn’t have voted to leave. And yes the country was perfect right up to June 2016..not

IMF have predicted we will have same growth as France, are they leaving the EU. Oh and higher growth than Germany, don't think they're leaving either.
And yeah they can whistle for the 39 billion without a decent deal.
As for opportunities the EU world market share is decreasing and predicted to continue to do so.

Do you not remember the bus? "Vote Brexit. It won't be quite as bad as the Great Recession"?

Also if the UK decides not to pay for its commitments (not that 39bn is a huge figure in context) it will become an international pariah.