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| Quote ="POSTL"I think you said in an earlier post that in your opinion the leave voters, voted to leave for many different
reasons and I think this is a casing point, the ERG can only see what we now refer to as a hard Brexit, however, I really don't see the problem with leaving the EU with a deal that will also appeal to some people that voted to remain for example we should be able to agree a form of the customs Union and a Trade Policy. Which is why we entered the Common Market originally.'"
We've had that option for months - the Labour offer is to leave and retain membership of *a* customs union; and all the stuff about workers rights, consumer and environmental protections etc. That would probably win a majority across the house, given that it solves the DUP's issue *and* appeals to Remainers in the sense that it's a soft Brexit. Furthermore, the EU leaders have welcomed it.
So - if we're to get an extension to A50, and comply with the EU condition that if we want one, they need to know what for - it would seem sensible to request an extension, then use time to achieve a cross-party consensus around a soft (Labour) Brexit, that can command a majority in the House.
But - Mrs May, it is reported, absolutely refuses to be seen to be working with JC on the Labour deal, because, I assume, party politics and her enslavement by the ERG. Madness.
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| Quote ="bren2k"We've had that option for months - the Labour offer is to leave and retain membership of *a* customs union; and all the stuff about workers rights, consumer and environmental protections etc. That would probably win a majority across the house, given that it solves the DUP's issue *and* appeals to Remainers in the sense that it's a soft Brexit. Furthermore, the EU leaders have welcomed it.
So - if we're to get an extension to A50, and comply with the EU condition that if we want one, they need to know what for - it would seem sensible to request an extension, then use time to achieve a cross-party consensus around a soft (Labour) Brexit, that can command a majority in the House.
But - Mrs May, it is reported, absolutely refuses to be seen to be working with JC on the Labour deal, because, I assume, party politics and her enslavement by the ERG. Madness.'"
The key with the Labour option is the customs union.
Corbyn describes it as "a" customs union, a bespoke Uk - EU deal. However, would this fulfil the commitment to actually leave or, would this be yet another way of The EU maintaining control over the UK and is there really consensus with in Parliament for this option ?
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| Quote ="bren2k"We've had that option for months - the Labour offer is to leave and retain membership of *a* customs union; and all the stuff about workers rights, consumer and environmental protections etc. That would probably win a majority across the house, given that it solves the DUP's issue *and* appeals to Remainers in the sense that it's a soft Brexit. Furthermore, the EU leaders have welcomed it.
So - if we're to get an extension to A50, and comply with the EU condition that if we want one, they need to know what for - it would seem sensible to request an extension, then use time to achieve a cross-party consensus around a soft (Labour) Brexit, that can command a majority in the House.
But - Mrs May, it is reported, absolutely refuses to be seen to be working with JC on the Labour deal, because, I assume, party politics and her enslavement by the ERG. Madness.'"
Where is it reported that May will not work with the hate filled, terrorist supporting socialist JC?
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| Quote ="POSTL"I think you said in an earlier post that in your opinion the leave voters, voted to leave for many different
reasons and I think this is a casing point, the ERG can only see what we now refer to as a hard Brexit, however, I really don't see the problem with leaving the EU with a deal that will also appeal to some people that voted to remain for example we should be able to agree a form of the customs Union and a Trade Policy. Which is why we entered the Common Market originally.'"
I agree, but, as we know, that cuts across two of May’s red lines - ECJ jurisdiction and regulatory/trade autonomy.
To get something like Norway, then we’d need to allow freedom of movement and contribute to the EU budget too.
We’re sort of stuck between stools. Norway is, even i’d admit, a brexit in name only. May’s plan for something roughly like a ‘Canada-plus’ approach would be ‘fine’ if, like Canada, we didn’t have a land border with the EU or even just if that border wasn’t in a really difficult place.
Right from the outset, we seem to have thought, ‘we’re a special country and so we deserve a special deal.’ Whereas, unsurprisingly, the EU pointed us straight to its standard and existing packages, and May’s red lines narrowed it down to one poorly fitting option.
People can call it a lack of imagination on their part. More realistically it was a lack of self awareness on ours, imo.
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| Quote ="wrencat1873"The key with the Labour option is the customs union.
Corbyn describes it as "a" customs union, a bespoke Uk - EU deal. However, would this fulfil the commitment to actually leave or, would this be yet another way of The EU maintaining control over the UK and is there really consensus with in Parliament for this option ?'"
Well - we would have left the EU, and that's what it said on the ballot paper. I would think it was the responsibility of parliament to ensure that we enact the will of the people, in the most orderly, least damaging way possible - which seems at this stage to be Labour's plan. Some people wouldn't like it - but that's tough tits - more people would like it than like TM's deal, and maybe that's the best we can hope for.
It seems that people imagined very different things when they voted to Leave - and they'll stamp their feet and scweam until they're sick if Brexit doesn't turn out to be exactly as they imagined; we can blame that on people who lied about Brexit dividends, NHS funding, sunlit uplands and the easiest trade deal in human history - but they'll have to grow up, realise they were lied to, and perhaps next time they want to put two fingers up at the establishment, they'll pick a more appropriate way to do it.
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| Quote ="wrencat1873"would this be yet another way of The EU maintaining control over the UK'"
I thought you better than statements like that.
I cycled to the train station this morning on roads poorly maintained by the LA due to cuts to budgets by the UK Govt, not The EU. I got on a train that was unusually on time, though it was 4 carriages not 6, because the UK Govt, not The EU, has destroyed our public transport infrastructure. I cycled up through Leeds feeling guilty about all the homeless on the streets due to UK Govt policy, not EU. Got several messages from my daughter from Uni stressing because she wants to do a P/G after her 5 year course & has calculated she will have a debt of £113,582 at the end thanks to UK Govt policy, not The EU. In work we are desperately trying to work out our capital investment for the next 10 years but there are huge concerns due to Brexit policy & fees, due to UK Govt, not the EU. My mother as is struggling with her health & worries constantly about the service she will receive as she goes blind, due to cuts in health & social services thanks to The UK Govt, not the EU.
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| Quote ="wrencat1873"The key with the Labour option is the customs union.
Corbyn describes it as "a" customs union, a bespoke Uk - EU deal. However, would this fulfil the commitment to actually leave or, would this be yet another way of The EU maintaining control over the UK and is there really consensus with in Parliament for this option ?'"
I can see your point, I am sure a customs Union and a Trade Policy would be widely excepted by parliament, not sure if the EU would be happy with it being a bespoke UK-EU deal. I think if the EU were to keep control of workers rights etc that might be seen as the EU still remaining in control. We could however, say that we would have the EU model as our minimum standard as in some areas the UK already exceeds the EU minimum.
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| Quote ="tigertot"I thought you better than statements like that.
I cycled to the train station this morning on roads poorly maintained by the LA due to cuts to budgets by the UK Govt, not The EU. I got on a train that was unusually on time, though it was 4 carriages not 6, because the UK Govt, not The EU, has destroyed our public transport infrastructure. I cycled up through Leeds feeling guilty about all the homeless on the streets due to UK Govt policy, not EU. Got several messages from my daughter from Uni stressing because she wants to do a P/G after her 5 year course & has calculated she will have a debt of £113,582 at the end thanks to UK Govt policy, not The EU. In work we are desperately trying to work out our capital investment for the next 10 years but there are huge concerns due to Brexit policy & fees, due to UK Govt, not the EU. My mother as is struggling with her health & worries constantly about the service she will receive as she goes blind, due to cuts in health & social services thanks to The UK Govt, not the EU.'"
I think that you are missing my point (by miles).
I'm well aware that for the main part, our laws and regulations are set by our own government.
However, I do believe that part of the "back stop" arrangement is designed (by the EU) to try and maintain some "ownership" of N.Ireland, with a possible view to divide and multiply. and as we have seen, they are also more than willing to "entertain" any group form the UK who they believe may not want to leave.
The point with ANY customs union is, that there will be a cost and with how things appear, it mat be significant. Either in terms of hard cash or a concession in another direction.
Personally, I'd be more than happy with a customs union, just I would have been happy to remain.
However, I have become less and less comfortable with the prospect of a second referendum and equally uncomfortable with the thought of prolonging this exercise for too much longer.
The UK has flat ling growth at present, business is shackled by massive economic uncertainty and we risk severe damage by not securing our future (in either direction).
If you were bored and wanted to trawl back through these threads, you would see that one of my earliest comments on this subject was about it's timing.
We are barely out of the deepest economic recession in my lifetime and we have volunteered a second economic shock and quite frankly, the longer that our politicians allow this debacle to continue, the deeper into the mire we will fall.
The initial fault for this was Cameron and his Tory cronies, trying to avoid a split within their party but, this could all become quite serious if we dont choose a political path into the future and this needs to be done sooner rather than later.
FWIW, I have 2 kids shackled with University debt, which grows by the month and we are all still paying the price for the banking crash but, Brexit is not helping one iota and we have to move on.
Can you imagine actually going to a second referendum and then still having to go through all of this again ??
It doesn't bear thinking about.
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| Quote ="POSTL"I can see your point, I am sure a customs Union and a Trade Policy would be widely excepted by parliament, not sure if the EU would be happy with it being a bespoke UK-EU deal. I think if the EU were to keep control of workers rights etc that might be seen as the EU still remaining in control. We could however, say that we would have the EU model as our minimum standard as in some areas the UK already exceeds the EU minimum.'"
Sounds roughly similar to Turkey’s arrangements with the EU.
Despite some Brexiteers likely going off the deep end about losing the right to have an independent trade policy, it is a workable solution imo.
I wonder if it isn’t floated often because being lumped in with Norway, Switzerland or Canada broadly fits with our national self image, but being like Turkey... not so much.
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| So many closer votes tonight, just shows how divided the place is.
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| it shouldn't matter, we voted to come out, all this stuff being sprouted on here shouldn't matter, we voted to COME OUT, if we don't democracy is finished
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| Quote ="hull2524"it shouldn't matter, we voted to come out, all this stuff being sprouted on here shouldn't matter, we voted to COME OUT, if we don't democracy is finished'"
If we don't (and that is a stark possibility now), you'll see the rise of far right parties and groups on a scale we have never seen before. 17.4M leavers...3.8M UKIP voters in 2015...do the maths.
This week has been a shambles. MPs still taking their own individual views over their constituents and looking for an opportunity to attack the Tories and thwart Brexit rather than move forward. If justice is served very few of them keep their jobs next time round.
That said, an interesting turn of events could take place now...we've voted to propose an extension, but all 27 EU nations need to agree. Just 1 rejection would see it vetoed. Legally we are leaving on 29th March.
So, let's say the EU reject an extension (unlikely, but I hope they do, and there are anti-EU governments sympathetic to Brexit). Our only remaining choice is May's deal or no deal by 29th March. Parliament rejected no deal. Again, do the maths.
BTW, I've said it before but taking no deal off the table is a sign of the idiocy prevalent in Parliament. Fortunately it's not binding but if it was the EU could sit back and let the clock run down, knowing the UK has to accept a deal. Leave no deal on the table and the EU know they cannot be seen to agree to something which will damage businesses across Europe and throw Ireland off a cliff.
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| Quote ="hull2524"it shouldn't matter, we voted to come out, all this stuff being sprouted on here shouldn't matter, we voted to COME OUT, if we don't democracy is finished'"
Don’t be daft. 37% of people voted in an advisory poll to leave the EU. Even if neither campaign had broken electoral law and even if both campaigns hadn’t declared they would opt for a customs union of some description, the democratic mandate of that poll has already been more than met by Parliament and government.
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| Is she really going to try and get her deal through again with no changes? What an absolute shambles of a leader she is.
I bet she regrets calling a general election more and more each day, as would all be over now if she hadn't.
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| Quote ="Charlie Sheen"Is she really going to try and get her deal through again with no changes? What an absolute shambles of a leader she is.
I bet she regrets calling a general election more and more each day, as would all be over now if she hadn't.'"
Tbf, she might (just) get away with it. As other options drop away, MPs will now be forced to choose from fewer, increasing support for those options that remain. Basically it is down to 2:
1. Pass May’s deal then moved forward with a short technical extension to pass the necessary associated legislation
2. [uRequest[/u a long extension and try to find another way forward
The DUP appear to be softening their stance, which’ll give a lot of rebel Tories the excuse they need to vote for the deal. A few Labour MPs from leave constituencies might sneak it over the line.
Neither is very appetising to me, but i’m at the point where I hope May’s deal goes through. It’s not like, imo, anybody else has put forward a coherent and compelling alternative. I do think that is a failing of the Labour leadership - they’ve likely waited for their moment until it has passed.
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| Quote ="Him"Don’t be daft. 37% of people voted in an advisory poll to leave the EU. Even if neither campaign had broken electoral law and even if both campaigns hadn’t declared they would opt for a customs union of some description, the democratic mandate of that poll has already been more than met by Parliament and government.'"
You are of course correct, that BOTH sides told lies and misled the electorate.
However, IF there is a second referendum, just the same type of things will happen and more importantly, the split that there is over Brexit, will become deeper and wider and the anger, particularly from "leavers", which is quite understandable WILL grow and we the result is likely to be very similar (even if the scales happen to tip in favour of remain).
The original referendum was advertised by "remain" as a once in a lifetime vote and NOBODY should have been in any doubt about this.
I voted remain and have been as vociferous as anyone about some of the dodgy tactics, lies, deceit etc but, we have to move on.
The country is now teetering above recession and the ecconomy is likely to slip further and the longer that the current situation continues, the worse this situation will become.
Yes, we are all a little better informed around the issues but, at some point we have to "crap or get off the pot" and right now all we have is increasing pain from sitting there for too long.
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| I must have missed something. I've seen a few references to an advisory poll. All I can remember is a straight in or out referendum.
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| Quote ="hull2524"it shouldn't matter, we voted to come out, all this stuff being sprouted on here shouldn't matter, we voted to COME OUT, if we don't democracy is finished'"
Don't talk crap. A democracy is where you can change your mind. It's like saying you vote for a political party with no knowledge of any of its policies & are not allowed to criticise it when its true colours are shown.
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| Quote ="tigertot"Don't talk crap. A democracy is where you can change your mind. It's like saying you vote for a political party with no knowledge of any of its policies & are not allowed to criticise it when its true colours are shown.'"
I'm not sure that you're analogy is correct here.
It wasn't a general election, where you can change your mind in 4 years time, it was supposed to be a once in a lifetime vote.
Of course, in democracy, we are all governed, ultimately, by the will of the people.
But, what would you expect to happen IF there was a second referendum, with either a similar result in favour of Leave of a slight majority in favour of remain and you need to think about this one from both sides.
IF I had voted leave and the result changed slightly in favour of remain, I would be more peed off than I was with the first result.
Had Corbyn opened his mouth during the first referendum and swayed a few more Labour voters, maybe, it would have made the difference and had "remain" used someone with charisma, rather than Cameron and Osborne, maybe fewer people would have wanted to bloody their nose.
However, neither of those things happened and you have to accept that Farage and Co ran a far more effective campaign, albeit promising a little more than was ever possible.
The fundamental problem is that despite the vast majority of MP's saying that they would honour the result of the referendum, when it has come to the crunch and because of May's dodgy deal, they cant bring themselves to do what they promised.
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| Quote ="wrencat1873"Had Corbyn opened his mouth during the first referendum and swayed a few more Labour voters, maybe, it would have made the difference and had "remain" used someone with charisma, rather than Cameron and Osborne, maybe fewer people would have wanted to bloody their nose.
'"
An early entrant in the daily "What is Jeremy Corbyn's Fault?" competition; good luck - it's a strong contender.
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| Quote ="bren2k"An early entrant in the daily "What is Jeremy Corbyn's Fault?" competition; good luck - it's a strong contender.'"
Bren, I know that you like the guy's politics but, it's absolutely clear that HE is not comfortable with remaining in the EU and although he bangs on about workers rights etc, which he is right to want to protect, this is only part of the issue.
Labour seem to be split 70 / 30 in favour of remain, with the Tories maybe 75 /25 in favour of leave but having had a referendum with 52 /48 in favour of leave, Labour were not brave enough or committed enough to fight the last election on a "remain" card and yes, Corbyn has been bloody awful on the subject.
Even with the opportunity to back a second referendum, HE instructed his party to abstain.
He needs to grow a pair and quick.
Corbyn was great on the back benches, able to fight for certain issues that he believed in or, against those that hew didn't but, he's an awful leader and just like May, although he has the badge and the big chair, he is not effectively leading his party.
He is frightened to death of committing himself , just in case there is a general election where he may need to change tack. His is so full of splinters, it's unbelievable and if you need to measure his effectiveness, just have a look at the opinion polls where, despite being fractured and with THE worst prme minister since the war, the Tories are still 6/7 points ahead.
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| Quote ="Mild Rover"Tbf, she might (just) get away with it. As other options drop away, MPs will now be forced to choose from fewer, increasing support for those options that remain. Basically it is down to 2:
1. Pass May’s deal then moved forward with a short technical extension to pass the necessary associated legislation
2. [uRequest[/u a long extension and try to find another way forward
The DUP appear to be softening their stance, which’ll give a lot of rebel Tories the excuse they need to vote for the deal. A few Labour MPs from leave constituencies might sneak it over the line.
Neither is very appetising to me, but i’m at the point where I hope May’s deal goes through. It’s not like, imo, anybody else has put forward a coherent and compelling alternative. I do think that is a failing of the Labour leadership - they’ve likely waited for their moment until it has passed.'"
I think it was interesting what Reece Mogg said before the last vote when asked if he would now back the deal, he wouldn't commit until he knew what the DUP were doing. Therefore, if she can somehow get the DUP on board then the ERG just might follow suit. So her deal might just not be dead in the water
I was really disappointed yet again in Labour to see them all sat their abstaining from the Referendum vote. Sitting on the fence AGAIN.
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| Quote ="wrencat1873"Bren, I know that you like the guy's politics but, it's absolutely clear that HE is not comfortable with remaining in the EU and although he bangs on about workers rights etc, which he is right to want to protect, this is only part of the issue.
Labour seem to be split 70 / 30 in favour of remain, with the Tories maybe 75 /25 in favour of leave but having had a referendum with 52 /48 in favour of leave, Labour were not brave enough or committed enough to fight the last election on a "remain" card and yes, Corbyn has been bloody awful on the subject.
Even with the opportunity to back a second referendum, HE instructed his party to abstain.
He needs to grow a pair and quick.
Corbyn was great on the back benches, able to fight for certain issues that he believed in or, against those that hew didn't but, he's an awful leader and just like May, although he has the badge and the big chair, he is not effectively leading his party.
He is frightened to death of committing himself , just in case there is a general election where he may need to change tack. His booty is so full of splinters, it's unbelievable and if you need to measure his effectiveness, just have a look at the opinion polls where, despite being fractured and with THE worst prme minister since the war, the Tories are still 6/7 points ahead.'"
There are no facts in there but one - and the Labour party abstained from the motion because the PV movement itself said it was too soon and tactically, the wrong time. I actually think he's played his hand very well - Labour's position has been clear since conference, and he's stuck to that - in the process, inflicting a series of devastating defeats on the government.
I just can't see this argument that because he's not trying to overturn the result at every twist and turn, it's a failure - because it clearly isn't a failure in the eyes of the Labour voters who also voted leave; and I have less and less sympathy with the argument, largely because of the arrogance and certainty with which many of its advocates have rounded on Corbyn as the 'cause' of Brexit, simply because he isn't willing to alienate the electorate by openly stating that he wants to overturn the result; and why are the Tories - the sole cause and agents of Brexit - getting off scot free? Where are the calls for Mrs May, passionate Remainer, to overturn the result and go immediately to a PV?
It goes back to the earlier point that Brexit does not fall neatly within party lines - and that makes it exceptionally difficult for our party political system to navigate through; which is why Mrs May's refusal to work on building a cross-party consensus instead of doggedly pursuing her own deal, has failed - and why the divisions caused by the campaign and the result are now worse rather than better.
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| If the D.U.P. decide to U-turn after all their rhetoric about the backstop being a no-no, I wonder what the Tories have offered to sweeten the pill?
There will be a number of the E.R.G. gang who will never vote for the deal, but they could be off-set by the likes of Mann & Hoey. It's going to be tight, like the Benn amendment yesterday.
But even if the deal squeaks through, nobody will be really happy with the outcome.
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| Quote ="The Devil's Advocate"But even if the deal squeaks through, nobody will be really happy with the outcome.'"
Brexit summed up - nobody will be happy; and every social, political or economic issue for the next ten years will be attributed to/blamed on Brexit, and the arguments will never end.
Joy.
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